Week 17 Recap: Unlike The Eagles, We Did Not Tank

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers.

Week 17 is always a chaotic mess. I end up doing more work in preparation for it then any other week. This year was no exception, particular with all the COVID shit going on. Given the extra effort, it was good to walk away with a small win even if we had one embarrassing stinker in there. Let’s take a look at the games:

NY Jets @ New England
Wager: NE -3.0
Strength: 4.26
Sizing: 2 units

This game started off exactly how you’d expect a game that featured two terrible defenses and a 39.5 total. Things were tied 7-7 at the half, but the Patriots passing offense woke up for the second. In total, they gained 0.22 EPA/play, which was an excellent result considering the Patriots averaged negative EPA/dropback on the entire season. Add in a trick play that led to Cam Newton catching a touchdown pass from Jakobi Myers, and we had more than enough to cover. The Jets also moved the ball well, but committed two costly turnovers. In the end, that was the difference.

Finial score: New England 28, NY Jets 14
Result: Won 2 units

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
Wager: CIN +12.0
Strength: 3.8
Sizing: 1 unit

Yikes. Let’s not.

Final score: Baltimore 38, Cincinnati 3
Result: Lost 1 unit

Minnesota @ Detroit
Recommended Wager: DET +7.0
Strength: 3.24
Sizing: 1 unit

This was our most interesting bet of the week, as we were gambling with the Matt Stafford situation. I felt confident all week that he was going to play, and the line movement showed that the market was more optimistic about Stafford playing as the week went on. It moved from 7 to 6.5 in the middle of the week, then moved to 4 on Sunday when Stafford was officially ruled active. It’s crystal clear that a Stafford lead offense shouldn’t be spotted 7 points. I think the pessimism was rooted in this ridiculous notion that players don’t care about week 17 if they’re eliminated from the playoffs. Matt Stafford, like every other player in the league, is a competitor that wants to get out there.

As for the game, it was a back and forth slug fest with either team failing to pull away. In the end the Vikings took it, but we were never in danger of not covering 7.

Final score: Minnesota 37, Detroit 35
Result: Won 1 unit

Dallas @ NY Giants
Recommended Wager: NYG +3.0
Strength: 2.96
Sizing: 1 unit

Ah, this game. The game that might have meant something if not for the Eagles deliberately tanking on primetime TV (ok — Washington was probably winning that game anyway, but I wanted to get another Eagles shot in).

The Giants jumped out to a 20-9 lead at the half. In the second, a Daniel Jones INT led to a Cowboys touchdown, and suddenly it was aa 4 point game. After the two teams exchanged field goals, Dallas was driving. Having a team +3 who is up by 4 is never ideal since Dallas would never settle for a field goal. Luckily for us, Andy Dalton threw a pick in the end zone with 1:14 to go, and that was all she wrote.

Final score: NY Giants 23, Dallas 19
Result: Won 1 unit

Green Bay @ Chicago
Wager: CHI +5.5
Strength: 3.15
Sizing: 1 unit

This was another stinker. The Packers dominated — Rodgers gained 10.0 yards per attempt and threw 4 TDs despite only attempting 24 passes. Tribusky played solidly in his own right, but he threw an interception and rookie Cole Kmet fumbled. The Bears did cut it 7 going into the 4th, but then the Packers put together two unanswered touchdown drives. GG.

Final score: Green Bay 35, Chicago 16
Result: Lost 1 unit

See you bitches in the playoffs.

YTD Record: 43-32-3 (57%)
Week 17: Unlike The Eagles, We Did Not Tank (3-2, won 2 units)
Week 16: An Oddly Quiet Week (1-0-1, won 1 unit)
Week 15: Sneaking in the Backdoor (3-2-1, won 2 units)
Week 14: The Big Bets Take It (4-3, won 4 units)
Week 13: We Took A Hike (0-0)
Week 12: Mayhem Prevails (6-2, won 7 units)
Week 11: The 4PM Slate Was Mean (2-2, won 0 units)
Week 10: Thank You, Steelers (4-2-1, won 3 units)
Week 9: The Swongs Are Real (3-4, lost 2 units)
Week 8: Damn You, Jared Goff (1-2)
Week 7: Back in Black (5-1)
Week 6: Even Steven (2-2)
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)

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