Wildcard Round Recap: Saturday Yay, Sunday Nay

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers.

This week saw us to get off to a hot start Saturday, which made me happy. Then we lost both of our bets Sunday, which made me sad. Just some weekend swongs for us degenrates.

Indianapolis @ Buffalo
Recommended Wager: IND +6.5
Strength: 2.36
Sizing: 1 unit

This was one of the better games of the weekend. After taking a 10-7 lead toward the end of the half, Indy made a very aggressive decision to go for it on 4th and goal from Buffalo’s 4 yard line. This was a decision that even some of the most aggressive 4th down models preferred taking the chip shot field goal. The choice didn’t pay dividends after Phillip Rivers overthrew Michael Pittman in the endzone. Josh Allen then executed a masterful drive to end the half, resulting in a touchdown that gave the Bills a 14-10 lead. The Bills were able to score 10 unanswered to start the second half, due in part to a missed 33 yard field goal by Colts kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, giving them a 24-10 lead. Luckily for us, Indy’s offense scored touchdowns on two consecutive drives to cut the lead to 3. Since we were holding a Colts +6.5 ticket, that sealed our win. Unfortunately for the Colts, it wasn’t enough to win the game.

Final score: Buffalo 27, Indianapolis 24
Result: Won 1 unit

Tampa Bay @ Washington
Recommended Wager: WAS +8.5
Strength: 5.42
Sizing: 3 units

As most know, we make our bets on Tuesday night. This can occasionally mean that injury news might swing in either direction, and unfortunately this one went against us. Even though Alex Smith was able to play week 17, the swelling in his calf got worse throughout the week and he wasn’t able to play. The line closed at 10.5. Not ideal.

To his credit, Taylor Heinicke played well, going 44/52 (59.1%) for 306 yards (7.0 yards per attempt) and earning a 92.0 PFF grade. It simply wasn’t enough to keep up with old man Brady and all his shiny toys, as the Bucs were able to lead throughout. Luckily for us, the Football Team was able to keep it within 8 for the most of the game, and that’s exactly how things ended.

Final score: Tampa Bay 31, Washington 23
Result: Won 3 units

Baltimore @ Tennessee
Recommended Wager: TEN +3.0
Strength: 2.36
Sizing: 1 unit

Mike Vrabel coached this game as if he bet the Ravens. I understand how special Derrick Henry is, but it’s 2020 — passing is more efficient than running. It’s egregious to force feed any running back on early downs, but it’s especially bad when you notice that your game plan isn’t working and you refuse to pivot. Here’s a look at what the Titans called on first down:

Not great!

In the 4th quarter with the Titans down 4, they had a 4th and 2 on the Ravens 40. This is one of the more obvious calls to go for it, but Vrabel decided to punt.

Giving up 7% win probability due to a play-call is a fireable offense, in my book. Anyway, yeah, we bet on that team. We did not win.

Final score: Baltimore 20, Tennessee 13
Result: Lost 1 unit

Chicago @ New Orleans
Recommended Wager: CHI +9.5
Strength: 2.65
Sizing: 1 unit

The good news with this game is the model can’t back the Bears anymore. I really don’t have much to add about the game — it was a snooze fest that the Saints easily controlled the entire way. The Bears only touchdown came with zero seconds on the clock, because 21-9 looks better then 21-3, I suppose.

Final score: New Orleans 21, Chicago 9
Result: Lost 1 unit

YTD Record: 45-34-3 (57%)
Wildcard Round: Saturday Yay, Sunday Nay (2-2, won 2 units)
Week 17: Unlike The Eagles, We Did Not Tank (3-2, won 2 units)
Week 16: An Oddly Quiet Week (1-0-1, won 1 unit)
Week 15: Sneaking in the Backdoor (3-2-1, won 2 units)
Week 14: The Big Bets Take It (4-3, won 4 units)
Week 13: We Took A Hike (0-0)
Week 12: Mayhem Prevails (6-2, won 7 units)
Week 11: The 4PM Slate Was Mean (2-2, won 0 units)
Week 10: Thank You, Steelers (4-2-1, won 3 units)
Week 9: The Swongs Are Real (3-4, lost 2 units)
Week 8: Damn You, Jared Goff (1-2)
Week 7: Back in Black (5-1)
Week 6: Even Steven (2-2)
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Website Powered by WordPress.com.

Up ↑

%d bloggers like this: