Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers.
It’s sad to say, but the 2020 season is officially in the books. Against the Vegas consensus spread, our record was 47-34-3 (58%) this season. This means we can be 85% confident we’re better than 50% long term, and 68% confident we’re better than 52.5%, which is the threshold needed to beat -110 lines. This is also strictly using the consensus, so with proper line shopping you could do even better. After years of tweaking the model, Dom is finally satisfied with how the model works. There’s nothing left to do except go into off-season mode, eyeing win total futures and draft based props until it’s time to do it all over again in August. I can’t wait.
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay
Wager: TB +3.5
Sizing: 1 unit
Though I was extremely happy to get in an early bet at 3.5, we did still green light a TB +3 -110 bet, and either would have done the trick since the Bucs won outright. Predictably, the Chiefs banged up offensive line got man handled by the Bucs pass rush, which received a jolt after Vita Vea returned from an ankle injury. Per PFF, Mahomes was under pressure on 43% of his dropbacks when he got the ball out in under 2.5 seconds. Brady was under pressure on just 10% of such dropbacks. The Bucs predominantly played with multiple deep safeties, which took away the deep ball. It made life hell for Mahomes, and left the seemingly impossible to stop Chiefs touchdownless for the entire game. On the other side, Tom Brady threw 3 TDs — including two to Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady wins his 7th ring. We won our bet. Life is good (unless you’re a Chiefs fan).
Pat Mahomes under 329.5 -110 (Fan Duel) — this didn’t have the ideal game script. With the Chiefs trailing for virtually the entire game, Mahomes ended up dropping back 56 times. He still only threw for 270 yards.
Tyreek Hill o5.5 rushing yards +100 (Bet MGM) — Hill had one rush attempt for 5 yards. Shit.
Tom Brady +2.5 passing TDs +120 (Fan Duel) — this one hit with dog odds, which is always nice. Brady threw for 3 TDs.
Darrel Williams u34.5 rushing yards -167 (Bet MGM) — Williams had two carries for 5 yards. With Edwards-Helaire fully healthy and the Chiefs needing to pass, this was never in doubt.
Travis Kelce to score first TD (+600) (My Bookie) — Gronk ended up hauling in the first TD.
TD Record: 47-34-3 (58%)
Super Bowl Recap: The Final Chapter (1-0, won 1 unit, 3-2 on props)
Conference Championship: Prop Bets Only (0-0, 3-1 on props)
Divisional Round: The Dawg Pound (1-0, won 1 unit)
Wildcard Round: Saturday Yay, Sunday Nay (2-2, won 2 units)
Week 17: Unlike The Eagles, We Did Not Tank (3-2, won 2 units)
Week 16: An Oddly Quiet Week (1-0-1, won 1 unit)
Week 15: Sneaking in the Backdoor (3-2-1, won 2 units)
Week 14: The Big Bets Take It (4-3, won 4 units)
Week 13: We Took A Hike (0-0)
Week 12: Mayhem Prevails (6-2, won 7 units)
Week 11: The 4PM Slate Was Mean (2-2, won 0 units)
Week 10: Thank You, Steelers (4-2-1, won 3 units)
Week 9: The Swongs Are Real (3-4, lost 2 units)
Week 8: Damn You, Jared Goff (1-2)
Week 7: Back in Black (5-1)
Week 6: Even Steven (2-2)
Week 5: Saved by Monday Night Overtime (2-2)
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)