The Bucs Have Value at +3.5

We can debate about tenths of percentages on DVOA, exact positioning on power rankings, at the value of playing at home, but at the end of the day our model shows this game to be roughly a pick 'em. +2.5 would be reasonable; +3.5 is too far. Take the points and hoist the jolly roger.

Bet the Saints to Win Super Bowl 55

Our recommendations for the playoffs are born from similar methodology found elsewhere on this site.  Advanced NFL statistics are considered alongside our power rankings and a team’s playoff seed to model their probability of winning Super Bowl 55 (I’ve given up on the roman numerals). While we feel Kansas City stands the best shot of... Continue Reading →

Recommended Bets: Wild Card Weekend

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
SAT 1:05PMIND @ BUFIND +6.51 unit
SAT 8:15PMTB @ WASWAS +8.53 units
SUN 1:05PMBAL @ TENTEN +3.01 unit
SUN 4:40PMCHI @ NOCHI +9.51 unit

2020 Was for the Dogs

If you follow us religiously (and damn it, you should) you’ll have noticed our strong preference towards underdogs the past few weeks. Theoretically, the balancing pass we undertook in mid-October should have eliminated any inherent bias the model holds towards favorites or dogs.  The model actually evolves, mildly, each week of the season, taking into... Continue Reading →

Recommended Bets: Week 15

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
TNF 8:20PMLAC @ LVLV -3.51 unit
SAT 8:15PMCAR @ GBCAR +8.51 unit
SUN 1:00PMSEA @ WASWAS +5.52 units
SUN 1:00PMCHI @ MINCHI +3.01 unit
SUN 4:25PMKC @ NONO +3.01 unit
SNF 8:20PMCLE @ NYGNYG +4.01 unit

Recommended Bets: Week 14

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
SUN 1:00PMHOU @ CHICHI +1.51 unit
SUN 1:00PMDEN @ CARCAR -3.51 unit
SUN 1:00PMARI @ NYGARI -2.52 units
SUN 1:00PMKC @ MIAMIA +7.02 units
SUN 4:25PMWAS @ SFWAS +3.02 units
SUN 4:25PMATL @ LACATL -2.51 unit
SNF 8:20PMPIT @ BUFPIT +2.51 unit

Recommended Bets, Week 13: Take a hike

Based on our model's output this week, we don't recommend taking any wagers. Full results for all games are here. We will continue to monitor WAS @ PIT and DAL @ BAL as lines evolve following Wednesday night's game.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing

Recommended Bets: Week 12

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
Thanksgiving 12:30PMHOU @ DETDET +3.01 unit
Thanksgiving 4:30PMWAS @ DALWAS +3.01 unit
SUN 1:00PMLAC @ BUFBUF -5.51 unit
SUN 1:00PMLV @ ATLATL +3.01 unit
SUN 1:00PMCLE @ JAXJAX +6.51 unit
SUN 4:00PMNO @ DENNO -6.02 units
SUN 4:25PMKC @ TBTB +3.53 units
SNF 8:20PMCHI @ GBCHI +8.51 unit

Website Powered by WordPress.com.

Up ↑