These teams show significant edges over bookmakers for Super Bowl LIV.
Super Bowl LIV Forestcast
Recommended Bets: Week 8
The model also likes the Seahawks over the Falcons, but that game is mostly not available at most books because of the Matt Ryan injury. Recommending it feels disingenuous, so we simply won't.
WAS +16.0
| WAS @ MIN | 10/24 8:20pm |
| Wager: | WAS +16.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.68% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.48% |
Miami +14.5
| MIA @ PIT | 10/28 8:15pm |
| Wager | MIA +14.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 55.15% |
| Cover Edge: | 5.29% |
Recommended Bets: Week 7
Miami +17.0
| MIA @ BUF | 10/20 1:00pm |
| Wager | MIA +17.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 60.37% |
| Cover Edge: | 15.25% |
Los Angeles Rams -3.0
| LAR @ ATL | 10/20 1:00pm |
| Wager: | LAR -3.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 55.38% |
| Cover Edge: | 5.72% |
New Orleans Saints +3.0
| NO @ CHI | 10/20 4:25pm |
| Wager: | NO +3.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.70% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.52% |
Los Angeles Chargers +2.0
| LAC @ TEN | 10/20 4:05pm |
| Wager: | LAC +2.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.66% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.45% |
High Dimensional Space
Some of my otherwise most ardent supporters recently called out the model for its somewhat nonconventional and seemingly inconsistent attitudes towards the Dolphins of Miami. Last week, the fish traveled to Dallas as 20-something point underdogs and the model instructed us to go wide open throttle. This week, we’ve got Miami at home against LAC... Continue Reading →
A High Level Overview of the Model
Rather than simply posting a table with what might perceived to be made up numbers, I thought it might be helpful to give a high level overview of how the model works. In the simplest terms possible, the model takes a bunch of “predictors” (called independent variables) and works some mathemagical wizardry (called a support... Continue Reading →
Monkeys on Typewriters
If you put enough Monkeys on typewriters, one will eventually write you The Odyssey.
Recommended Wagers- Wildcard Round
In addition to an against-the-spread wager on IND +1.5, we recommend a three leg Wong teaser for the model's top teams, resulting in IND +7.5, LAC +8.5, SEA +7.5.
IND +1.5
| IND @ HOU | 01/05 4:35 PM |
| Model: | 2.828 |
| Vegas: | -1.5 |
| Differential: | 4.328 |
| Wager: | IND 1.5 |
Recommended Wagers- Week 17
SEA -13.5
| ARI @ SEA | 12/30 4:25 PM |
| Model: | -17.615 |
| Vegas: | -13.5 |
| Differential: | -4.115 |
| Wager: | SEA -13.5 |
CHI +4.5
| CHI @ MIN | 12/30 4:25 PM |
| Model: | -1.592 |
| Vegas: | -4.5 |
| Differential: | 2.908 |
| Wager: | CHI 4.5 |
LAR -10.0
| SF @ LAR | 12/30 4:25 PM |
| Model: | -13.246 |
| Vegas: | -10 |
| Differential: | -3.246 |
| Wager: | LAR -10.0 |
Recommended Wagers- Week 16
HOU +2.5
| HOU @ PHI | 12/23 1:00 PM |
| Model: | 2.796 |
| Vegas: | -2.5 |
| Differential: | 5.296 |
| Wager: | HOU 2.5 |
CHI -4.0
| CHI @ SF | 12/23 4:05 PM |
| Model: | 10.304 |
| Vegas: | 4 |
| Differential: | 6.304 |
| Wager: | CHI -4.0 |
DEN -2.5
| DEN @ OAK | 12/24 8:15 PM |
| Model: | 9.355 |
| Vegas: | 2.5 |
| Differential: | 6.855 |
| Wager: | DEN -2.5 |
