We can debate about tenths of percentages on DVOA, exact positioning on power rankings, at the value of playing at home, but at the end of the day our model shows this game to be roughly a pick 'em. +2.5 would be reasonable; +3.5 is too far. Take the points and hoist the jolly roger.

While our domain here at First and Thirty falls squarely on football, we’re casual degenerates much like the rest of you, and casual degenerates don’t have many NFL wagers left to make this season.  To give you something to root for this winter, you should bet on each of these NHL teams to claim the... Continue Reading →

Our recommendations for the playoffs are born from similar methodology found elsewhere on this site.  Advanced NFL statistics are considered alongside our power rankings and a team’s playoff seed to model their probability of winning Super Bowl 55 (I’ve given up on the roman numerals). While we feel Kansas City stands the best shot of... Continue Reading →

If you follow us religiously (and damn it, you should) you’ll have noticed our strong preference towards underdogs the past few weeks. Theoretically, the balancing pass we undertook in mid-October should have eliminated any inherent bias the model holds towards favorites or dogs.  The model actually evolves, mildly, each week of the season, taking into... Continue Reading →

Based on our model's output this week, we don't recommend taking any wagers. Full results for all games are here. We will continue to monitor WAS @ PIT and DAL @ BAL as lines evolve following Wednesday night's game.