Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager |
|---|---|---|
| SUN 1:00PM | LAR @ MIA | LAR -4.0 |
| SUN 1:00PM | NYJ @ KC | NYJ +19.5 |
| SUN 1:00PM | PIT @ BAL | PIT +3.5 |
Recommended Bets: Week 8
The house is empty: home field advantage is worth a mere 1.5 points this year.
One of our goals at First and Thirty is to present you with a fully transparent process for how we evaluate and recommend wagers. One of the trickiest parts to modeling the NFL this year has been in evaluating home field advantage. I initially rolled out a model that featured a home field advantage slightly... Continue Reading →
I have a confession to make.
This week I am taking the moneyline on the worst team in the NFL. I’m betting a team with a lame duck coach, less than 100 points scored, and strong odds to land top pick in the draft will get its first (and, let’s be realistic, probably only) win this Sunday. I have an even... Continue Reading →
Recommended Bets: Week 7
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager |
|---|---|---|
| SUN 1:00PM | BUF @ NYJ | NYJ +500 |
| SUN 1:00PM | GB @ HOU | HOU +3.5 |
| SUN 1:00PM | CLE @ CIN | CIN +3.5 |
| SUN 4:05PM | SEA @ ARI | ARI +3.5 |
| SNF 8:20 PM | TB @ LV | TB -3.0 |
| SUN 1:00PM SUN 1:00PM | PIT @ TEN CAR @ NO | TEN +8.0 (teaser) NO -1.5 (teaser) |
Recommended Bets: Week 6
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager |
|---|---|---|
| SUN 1:00PM | CIN @ IND | IND -7.5 |
| SUN 4:25PM | GB @ TB | TB +1.0 |
| SUN 4:05PM | NYJ @ MIA | NYJ +9.5 |
| SUN 1:00PM | CLE @ PIT | PIT -3.0 |
Fireside chat: halftime adjustments
We will be applying three quantitative adjustments in Week 6, increasing model accuracy by about 1 point.
Recommended Bets: Week 5
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager |
|---|---|---|
| SUN 1:00PM | CAR @ ATL | ATL -2.0 |
| TNF 8:20PM | TB @ CHI | TB -3.5 |
| SUN 1:00PM | PHI @ PIT | PIT -7.0 |
| SUN 1:00PM MNF 8:15PM | LAR @ WAS LAC @ NO | LAR -1.5 (teaser) NO -1.5 (teaser) |
Recommended Bets: Week 4
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager |
|---|---|---|
| TNF 8:20PM | DEN @ NYJ | NYJ +1.0 |
| SUN 1:00PM | ARI @ CAR | ARI -3.5 |
| SUN 1:00PM | SEA @ MIA | SEA -6.5 |
| SUN 1:00PM | CLE @ DAL | DAL -4.5 |
Recommended Bets: Week 3
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
We recommend doubling size on Pittsburgh this week due to high wager strength.
| Time | Matchup | Wager |
|---|---|---|
| SUN 1:00PM | HOU @ PIT | PIT -4.0 |
| TNF 8:20PM | MIA @ JAX | JAX -3.0 |
| SUN 1:00PM | LAR @ BUF | LAR +2.5 |
| SUN 1:00PM | CIN @ PHI | PHI -6.0 |
| SNF 8:20PM | GB @ NO | NO -3.0 |
| SUN 4:25PM | TB @ DEN | TB -6.0 |
Recommended Bets: Week 2
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager |
|---|---|---|
| SUN 1:00PM | DEN @ PIT | PIT -7.5 |
| SUN 1:00PM | CAR @ TB | TB -9.0 |
| SUN 4:00PM | WAS @ ARI | ARI -6.5 |
