Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value.
Detroit (+7.0) @ San Francisco
Line closed: SF -7.5, line moved away from the model
When the Lions were up 24-7 at the half, effectively putting us up 24, my watching interest were purely to see if Detroit could pull off the upset. I didn't even consider our bet could ever be in jeapory. I was wrong.
On the second drive of the 2nd half (following a SF field goal), Dan Cambpell (correctly) decided to go for it on 4th and 2 from the SF 28. The play worked, but Josh Reynolds dropped a would-be 1st down. Then came a San Fran touchdown, then a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble gave the ball back to San Francisco, which resulted in another touchdown. After a Detroit 3 and out and a 49ers field goal, San Francisco was suddely winning (27-24) with 9:52 to go in the 4th. The Detroit offensive woes continued, resulting in a punt on the next drive. If you're a believer in momentum, you know what happens next - the 49ers drove 70 yards in just 7 plays to score a touchdown, giving them a 34-24 lead with 3:02 to go. And just like that, we're no longer covering.
Luckily for us, Detroit marched down the field and scored a touchdown for themselves. The onside kick failed and they lost, but that last drive ultimately saved us.
Final score: San Francisco 34, Detroit 31
Result: WIN
ATS recap: 1-0, but the line oved against us.
Props recap:
Lamar Jackson o1.5 passing touchdowns +146 (FanDuel): Lamar threw for 1 early touchdown. LOSS -1 unit
Lamar Jackson u66.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): Lamar finished with 54 yards rushing. WIN +0.91 units
Patrick Mahomes u0.5 intereceptions +105 (DraftKings): Mahomes did not throw an interception. WIN +1.05 units
Patrick Mahomes u27.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): Mahomes finished with 15 yards rushing. WIN +0.91 units
Travis Kelce u62.5 receiving yards -105 (DraftKings): Kelce is crushing me. He had 116 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Cylde Edwards-Heliare o7.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM): CEH had 1 carry for 1 yard. LOSS -1 unit
Isiah Pacheco u17.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings): Pacheco was over at one point, but he lost 4 receiving yards in the 3rd quarter to put him back under. He finished with 14 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Zay Flowers o4.5 receptions +138 (FanDuel): Flowers had 5 catches and a costly fumble. Luckily we didn't bet on the latter. WIN +1.38 units
Jared Goff u0.5 interceptions +115 (Bet365): Goff did not throw an interception. WIN +1.15 units
Amon-Ra St. Brown o7.5 receptions +110 (DraftKings): ARSB finished with 7 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Final tally: 6-4, +2.31 units
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Week 11 Recap: I Hope You Trusted the Fucking Process
Week 12 Recap: No Extra Points In Overtime
Week 13 Recap: Jake Browning Fucks
Week 14 Recap: Monday Madness Decides Our Fate
Week 15 Recap: The Cowboys Sucked
Week 16 Recap: The Raiders Defense Sneaky Doesn't Suck
Week 17 Recap: One Win, One Loss, One Push
Week 18 Recap: We're Onto the Playoff
Wildcard Recap: The NFC East Was Exposed
Divisional Round Recap: The Future is Bright in Green Bay
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Weel 12: 2-3
Week 13: 2-2
Week 14: 2-2
Week 15: 1-2
Week 16: 3-3
Week 17: 1-1-1
Week 18: 0-3
Wildcard: 3-2
Divisional: 1-1
Conference: 1-0
Total: 36-39-1
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Week 12: 6-8, -1.99 units
Week 13: 5-6 -1.21 units
Week 14: 5-7, -2.54 units
Week 15: 3-10, -7.10 units
Week 16: 5-4, +0.66 units
Week 17: 5-7, -2.42 units
Week 18: 4-5, -1.27 units
Wildcard: 3-6, -2.88 units
Divisional: 5-6, -0.68 units
Conference: 6-4, +2.31 units
Total: 105-115, -11.43 units