Miami @ New Orleans
Matchup:
Both offenses have their work cut out for them. Tua Tagovailoa is having a decent season -- he's 18th in PFF grades (72.6) while completing 69.9% of his passes (3.1% above expectation) and gaining 7.1 yards per attempt. However, he plays behind a legit bottom 5 offensive line against a Saints defensive line that features Cam Jordan (40 pressures) and Marcus Davenport (30) along the edge and Shy Tuttle and David Onyemata on the inside. Though Davenport is questionable with shoulder/knee issues, the matchup won't be pretty in the run or pass game regardless of his status. To compensate, Tua gets rid of the ball on average of 2.48 seconds (4th fastest in the league) and has an average depth of target of 7.2 (3rd lowest). The Dolphins do have a decent collection of receivers between Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, and TE Mike Gesicki. The Saints have Marshon Lattimore at corner, but the rest of their cornerback room is below average. They compensate with a pair of above average safeties (Marcus Williams and PH Williams) as well as LB Pete Werner, who is both solid in coverage and against the run. The Dolphins are 25th in DVOA in offense against a Saints defense that ranks 4th best. The biggest mismatch is in the run game, where Miami ranks 30th in DVOA and the Saints defense ranks 1st.
On the other side, we have Ian Book at QB, who was named the starter after Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian were both placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Who the fuck is Ian Book, you ask? Book is a 4th round rookie out of Notre Dame, and the Fighting Irish fans are insulted by your question. Book was slightly above average in his senior year at Notre Dame. He stuck to shorter/intermediate throws and generally did a good job keeping the ball out of harm's way (he had just 3 INTs and a 2.4% turnover worthy play percentage), but didn't have the big throws to elevate his game to the next level. Book is a running threat; he ran for 611 yards and 9 TDs his senior year while clocking in at 4.59 in the 40. He also averaged 3.22 seconds to throw, a literal eternity, that will backfire in a horrible way if he attempts that tonight. The Dolphins blitz and generate pressure more frequently than any team in football, and the Saints offensive line is banged up/bad. They could get back LT Terron Armstead (questionable, knee) -- Armstead is one of the better tackles when healthy, but he'll be the only player above average on the offensive line, especially since RT Ryan Ramczyk was added to the COVID-19 list. Slot man Tre'Quan Smith (shoulder) is also questionable, which could leave an already poor Saints receiving core even worse off. Alvin Kamara will need to literally put the team on his back for thereto be any hope of production. The Dolphins have corners that can cover man to man and Jevon Holland at safety, who is the 5th highest graded safety in PFF's system. In total, Miami is 12th in defensive DVOA (14th vs pass, 18th vs the run). They're also 8th in DVOA covering running backs as receivers. Nothing is ideal for either offense.
Spread: The model was run pre Saints COVID-19 news, where it thought the Saints -3 was essentially perfect. The line is now New Orleans +3. It's tough to make adjustments for a QB we've never seen before, but I think that number is still about right. I'd lay off.
Total: The total is a whopping 38 points. I'd lean over, only because that number is insultingly low.
Prop bets:
Ian Book does not throw an INT +140 (BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings): That's right mothefuckers, I'm taking the rookie who hasn't thrown a single pass in the NFL with a bad offensive line against a defense that likes to blitz a lot. That's exactly why the market would price this poorly, however. As mentioned above, Book did a solid job taking care of the ball at Notre Dame, and it's fair to project that Sean Payton won't ask him to drop back that frequently.
Ian Book u32.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings): Ok, we're fading Book too. This number falls well short of his 22.2 projection.