The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
Kansas City @ Baltimore
BAL -4.0, O/U 44.5
- Lamar Jackson o1.5 passing touchdowns +146 (FanDuel)
- Lamar Jackson u66.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes u0.5 intereceptions +105 (DraftKings)
- Patrick Mahomes u27.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel)
- Travis Kelce u62.5 receiving yards -105 (DraftKings)
- Cylde Edwards-Heliare o7.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM)
- Isiah Pacheco u17.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)
- Zay Flowers o4.5 receptions +138 (FanDuel)
Detroit @ San Francisco
SF -7.5, O/U 51.5
- Jared Goff u0.5 interceptions +115 (Bet365) DK
- Amon-Ra St. Brown o7.5 receptions +110 (DraftKings)