The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
Houston @ Baltimore
BAL -9.5, O/U 44
- Lamar Jackson u53.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)
Green Bay @ San Francisco
SF -10, O/U 50.5
- Jordan Love o0.5 interceptions +150 (Bet365)
- Aaron Jones u68.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel)
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
DET -6, O/U 50
- Jared Goff o0.5 rushing yards +104 (Caesars)
- Josh Reynolds u42.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Mike Evans o5.5 receptions +124 (DraftKings)
- Sam Laporta o4.5 receptions +125 (Bet365)
Kansas City @ Buffalo
BUF -2.5, O/U 45.5
- Pat Mahomes u1.5 passing TDs +124 (DraftKings)
- Josh Allen u44.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)
- Travis Kelce u62.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)
- Isiah Pacheco u19.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)