Thanksgiving, also known as the objective best Holiday in the calendar, has arrived. A day where we take work off, get together with our family, eat delicious food, drink lots of beer, and of course - watch football. The only way to make it better is to gamble on said football games. That's where I come in. As I'm writing this Wednesday, most books don't have prop lines up for the Sunday slate, so I'll split the prop bet article into two different blog posts this week. The Sunday article will be published either Friday or Saturday.
The usual prop bet disclaimer:
The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
All recommended bets have a risk of 1 unit.
Green Bay @ Detroit (12:30 EST)
Spread: DET -7.5, O/U 47
David Montgomery u66.5 rushing yards -105 (DraftKings): When Montgomery returned from injury week 9, he was out-carried by Jahmyr Gibbs. Last week, Montgomery took back control of the backfield, handling 60% of running back carries while Gibbs handled 40%. Given how Montgomery was the lead back pre injury, I'd expect that split to remain about the same going forward. It's going to be difficult for Montgomery to hit this number with Gibbs eating into Montgomery's carries, even with such a large spread. The projections I've checked back this up.
Washington @ Dallas (4:30 EST)
Spread: DAL -12.5, O/U 48.5
Jake Ferguson u3.5 receptions +124 (DraftKings): This line is about right, so I'm happy to take whichever side offers dog odds, but there's a few reasons to like the under as well. The Cowboys are 12.5 point favorites, which should lead to them relying on the run game as they approach blow out territory. The Commanders defense is dead last in pass defense DVOA this season, but they've been best against tight ends, where they rank 15th.
San Francisco @ Seattle (8:20 EST)
Spread: SF -7.0, O/U 44
Brock Purdy u1.5 touchdown passes +112 (FanDuel). The total points to a lower scoring game, but the 49ers usage in the red zone also has a story to tell. Brock Purdy ranks 22nd in end zone passing attempts this season while Christian McCaffrey ranks 1st in red zone rush attempts. The 49ers clearly prefer the run game close to the goal line. 1.5 is a fair number for Purdy. I'm happy to take the dog odds.