Sunday 1PM Slate
Zach Wilson does not throw an INT +180 (Caesars): Yeah, Zach Wilson is a turnover machine. His most famous pass of his rookie season is a back interception. Regular readers (reader?) of the site know that I think tracking interceptions is a ridiculous way to judge how often a QB puts the ball in harm's way, instead favoring PFF's turnover worthy play percentage. Wilson's 5.2% TWP rate is 2nd highest in the league behind teammate Mike White. The bet here comes down to the price -- +180 means we only need Wilson to be successful (i.e, not throw a pick) 35.71% of the time for this to be a +EV bet. He has a tough matchup against a solid Saints defense, however, the Saints weakness is their cornerback room -- it's no surprise that they are better defending the run (1st in DVOA) than the pass (12th).
Cordarrelle Patterson u3.5 receptions +110 (DraftKings): This one pains me to write -- nobody is a bigger Patterson fan than myself this season. Unfortunately, I like money more than anything. This number matches Patterson's projection, so taking dog odds on either side is the choice. He's gone under this number in 4 of his last 6 games. The game (Panthers/Falcons) projects to be a snooze fest offensively, with a game total at 41.
James Robinson u2.5 receptions +114 (FanDuel): The same idea as above, taking a number that's in line with a projection and grabbing the side that's offering dog odds. These bets are almost always on the under, as squares head to the sports book to bet the over on their favorite player.
Alvin Kamara u33.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): Taysom Hill started 4 games for the Saints last season. Kamara's receiving total in those 4 games: 0, -2, 9, 44. The latter game being the outlier, where Hill targeted Kamara 10 times. We also had plenty of pre-season usage that showed that Hill simply doesn't like throwing the ball to running backs. 33.5 is a fair number for the Saints who likely won't need to throw much (they're playing the Jets), but not with Hill at QB.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Justin Herbert o11.5 rushing yards -110 (Caesars): PointBet is offering a much sharper 15.5 yards on this line. That's still well shy of Herbert's projection of 21.2. He's gone over this number in 8 of 12 games.
Kenny Golladay o39.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars): This number is well short of Golladay's projection of 55.3. Yes, he has Mike Glennon throwing him the ball. But with the Giants as 9.5 point dogs to the Chargers, he'll need to drop back plenty. Along with Sterling Shepard, Golladay should be running a route on almost every dropback with Kadarius Toney still out.
Kyle Juszczyk o13.5 receiving yards -115 (Caeasrs): Juszczyk, half full back, half God, continues to be disrespected by the prop market. It's a fucking sham, but we will profit off of it nonetheless. Juszczyk's projection sits at 18.8 and he's gone over this number in 7 of 12 games. Unrelated, but I have a mental barrier that prevents me from spelling Juszczyk's name correctly so I'm trying to write it as often as possible to overcome it. No copy and paste shortcuts. Juszczyk. Juszczyk. Juszczyk. Is that right? I don't even now. Bet the over.