Prop Bets: Week 10

· Brady,Week 10 2023,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Sunday 9AM Slate

Sunday 1PM Slate

Jerome Ford o40.5 rushing yards +106 (FanDuel)

Diontae Johnson u65.5 receiving yards -120 (PointBet)

Ja'Marr Chase o81.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Jordan Love u0.5 interceptions +155 (PointBet)

Sunday 4PM Slate

Tommy DeVito o157.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings)

Geno Smith u262.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)

Michael Wilson u34.5 receiving yards -105 (Bet365)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba u3.5 receptions +105 (DraftKings)

Sunday Night Football

Aidan O'Connell u208.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM)

Zach Wilson u209.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)