Prop Bets: Week 11

· Brady,Week 11 2023,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

All recommended bets have a risk of 1 unit.

Sunday 1PM Slate

Dorian Thompson-Robinson o166.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel)

Kyler Murray u241.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Aidan O'Connell o196.5 passing yards -115 (Bet365)

Raheem Mostert u54.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Derrick Henry o55.5 rushing yards -106 (Caesars)

Josh Reynolds u30.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Dalton Schultz u50.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM)

CeeDee Lamb o6.5 receptions -105 (BetMGM)

Sunday 4PM Slate

Zach Charbonnet u28.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings)

Josh Allen u0.5 interceptions +135 (DraftKings)

Sunday Night Football

Javonte Williams u67.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)