Prop Bets: Week 12

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Sunday 1PM Slate

Jacoby Brissett o205.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel)

Tom Brady o261.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel)

Rachaad White u67.6 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel)

Julio Jones o28.5 receiving yards -105 (FanDuel)

Cordarrelle Patterson u49.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM)

Darnell Mooney u50.5 receiving yards -115 (PointBet)

Tyreek Hill o7.5 receptions +123 (Caeasar)

Jaylen Waddle o5.5 receptions +124 (FanDuel)

Sunday 4PM Slate

Justin Herbert u280.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet)

Monday Night Football

Najee Harris u62.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM)