Prop Bets: Week 12

· Brady,Week 12 2023,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

All recommended bets have a risk of 1 unit.

Sunday 1PM Slate

Jake Browning o208.5 passing yards -101 (Caesars)

Tommy DeVito o175.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)
CJ Stroud u272.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Trevor Lawrence u258.5 passing yards -103 (Caesars)

Gardner Minshew u245.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet)

Diontae Johnson u55.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel)

Adam Thielen u67.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Calvin Ridley u60.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM)

Michael Pittman u5.5 receptions +124 (DraftKings)

Sunday 4PM Slate

Dorian Thompson-Robinson o170.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM)

Sunday Night Football

Keaton Mitchell u42.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)