Prop Bets: Week 13

· Brady,Week 13 2023,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

All recommended bets have a risk of 1 unit.

Sunday 1PM Slate

Gardner Minshew u236.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)

Bailey Zappe o201.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Will Levis u18.5 completions +110 (DraftKings)

Brian Robinson o40.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings)

Zack Moss u78.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)

Breece Hall o52.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)

Courtland Sutton u58.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM)

Amon-Ra St. Brown o7.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings)

Sunday 4PM Slate

Matthew Stafford u225.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)

Sunday Night Football

Jordan Love o20.5 completions +100 (DraftKings)

Monday Night Football

Ja'Marr Chase o57.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)