Prop Bets: Week 17

· Brady,Week 17 2023,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

All bets assume a risk of 1 unit.

Saturday Night Slate

Dak Prescott u285.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)

Jared Goff u264.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)

Sunday 1PM Slate
Bryce Young o170.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)

Kyler Murray u230.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Aidan O'Connell o209.5 passing yards -106 (Caesars)

Kyren Williams u94.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)

Brian Robinson o37.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings)

Trey McBride u65.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM)

Sunday 4PM Slate

Easton Stick o210.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)

Ja'Marr Chase o58.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Sunday Night Football

Justin Jefferson o75.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Tucker Kraft u3.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings)