The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Justin Fields o169.5 passing yards -103 (Caesars): Fields has had a horrendous start to the season and plays with a bunch of scrubs, but that's exactly the type of player I like to take overs on. His projections are closer to 200, and he's up against a bad Texans defense.
Mack Hollins u2.5 receptions +135 (BetMGM): Hollins is typically Carr's 4th option behind Adams, Waller, and Renfrow. His projection is sitting right at 2.5. I'm happy to take the dog odds.
Jared Goff u251.5 passing yards -108 (BetMGM): Goff is up against a Vikings defense that has defended everything poorly through 2 games, but this number is still too high. Most projections have him in the 230 range.
JuJu Smith-Schuster u4.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): JuJu is up against a Colts defense that has struggled against the pass, but 4.5 matches his projection, so I would take +120 on either side.
Shi Smith o10.5 receiving yards -125 (PointBet): The disrespect for my man Shi! Smith has been operating as the Panthers slot receiver. He ran a route last week on 34/40 dropbacks (more than Christian McCaffrey) and is projected closer to 30 yards. The matchup isn't great against the Saints, but we don't need much to go our way to win this one.
Tyler Allgeier u33.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): Allgeier, a 5th round rookie out of BYU, operates as the Falcons RB2 behind Cordarelle Patterson. He also competes with QB Marcus Mariota, who the Falcons do design runs for. Most projections have Allgeier in the 25 yard range against the Seahawks.
Joe Flacco u0.5 interceptions +115 (DraftKings): Although Flacco has thrown an interception this year, PFF hasn't charted him with a single turnover worthy throw. This is partially due to his low aDOT (average depth of target), which sits at 7.8. He's thrown the ball more than 20 yards down field at just a 5.8% rate, which is 4th lowest in the league. Flacco is relying on safe, underneath throws. Getting dog odds on the under simply doesn't add up.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Cooper Kupp o8.5 receptions +105 (BetMGM): This is a high number, but it matches projections and we're getting dog odds, even if it is only +105. With a game total of 48 and facing a Cardinals defense that is 28th in pass defense DVOA, I'm happy to take the over.
Sunday Night Football
Deebo Samuel u4.5 receptions +120 (FanDuel): I hate betting against Samuel. He's so god damn good and he's one of my favorite players to watch in the league. And yet here I am, betting against him for the second week in a row. Samuel will have more target competition with George Kittle (groin) back, and he's projected right at 4.5. I cannot turn down +120.
Monday Night Football
Cooper Rush o205.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): We hit on Rush's passing yardage over last week, and we're doing it again. Up against a bad Giants defense, Rush is projected closer to 230 yards.