The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Justin Fields o145.5 passing yards -125 (PointBet): I wrote in the preview blog how unbelievably bad Justin Fields has been this season. He's been so bad that it's unsustainable how bad he's been. We're always looking to bet on regression to the mean when outliers happen. Up against a bad Giants defense that will be without it's best defensive player (Leonard Williams), Fields's projection of 172.5 suggests this number is too low.
Khalil Herbert u75.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Herbert is typically the backup running back for the Bears, but he'll be starting this week with David Montgomery (ankle/knee) out. When Montgomery went down last week, Herbert gained 157 yards on just 20 touches (7.9 average). He's a 6th round draft pick out of Virginia from last year, but he's been an impressive runner whenever given the opportunity. I am a proud member of the "Khalil Herbert is good" camp. That said, this number is far too high (projections are closer to 56 yards), and likely has been bet up due to his performance last week. The Bears are 3 point underdogs to the Giants.
Nick Chubb u91.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Nick Chubb is going to off against the Falcons. That's led to most people betting his over, which has pushed this number too high. Most projections have Chubb in the 80s (fantasypros is at 88). Zig when they zag and take the under.
Noah Brown u46.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Brown will see a diminished role on the Cowboys with Michael Gallup (knee) set to make his season debut. The Cowboys were cautious with Gallup, who is recovering from ACL surgery from last February. Gallup practiced in full each day for the past two weeks, so I'm expecting him to be truly ready to go. Brown will still see the field plenty, but this number is too high (projections are in the low 40s). The Cowboys are 3.5 point favorites at home against the Commanders with a total of 41.5.
Michael Gallup o25.5 receiving yards -120 (PointBet): See above. I agree with projections that have Gallup much higher than this number.
CeeDee Lamb o4.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): Yes, more Cowboys players. I don't get to decide where the value is. Lamb is projected right at 4.5 receptions. Take the dog odds.
Curtis Samuel u4.5 receptions +135 (DraftKings): Samuel has had a nice season, but he's projected right at 4.5. I would gladly take +135 in either direction.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Aaron Rodgers o228.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Rodgers is up against the Patriots this weekend, and his projection of 250 yards suggests this number is too low. The Patriots will be without QB Mac Jones, which has made the Packers 9.5 point favorites and brought the total down to 40. Dating back to last season, Rodgers has gone over this number in 14/20 games.
Josh Jacobs u69.5 rushing yards -113 (Caesars): The Raiders are 2.5 point favorites at home against the Broncos, but the model thinks it will be a closer game than that. Jacobs is consistently projected below this number.
Mack Hollins u51.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Hollins will again see an expanded role in the Raiders offense with Hunter Renfrow missing his second straight game with a concussion. Hollins took advantage of his opportunity last week, gaining 158 yards and a touchdown on 8 catches. That result has pushed this number too high, as Hollins is consistently projected below this number.
Baker Mayfield o202.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Mayfield's projection is closer to the 230 range. He's played horrendously bad this season, but is in a good bounce back spot against a bad Cardinals secondary.
Sunday Night Football
Chris Godwin u40.5 receiving yards -115 (PointBet): This bet may or may not get cancelled -- Godwin tore his ACL last December and injured his hamstring week 1, causing him to miss the last two games. I believe reports that have him as a true game time decision, as he was limited in practice on Friday (he did not practice Thursday). Projections are consistently under his number. If he doesn't play the bet simply cancels.