Prop Bets: Week 5

· Brady,Week 5 2024,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Sunday Morning Slate
Aaron Jones u64.3 rushing yards -113 (FanDuel)


Sunday 1PM Slate
Tyler Huntley o160.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel)
Diontae Johnson o5.5 receptions +115 (Bet365)

 

Sunday 4PM Slate
Daniel Jones o181.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel)
Gardner Minshew o187.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)
Kyren Williams u83.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)
Josh Jacobs u67.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)
Colby Parkinson u36.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

 

Sunday Night Football
George Pickens o4.5 receptions +120 (Bet365)