The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Kenny Pickett u237.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM): Pickett is projected right at or below this number. Up against a very good Bucs defense and making his second career start, I'll take the under.
Najee Harris u45.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): Harris is coming off a game where he rushed for 20 yards on 11 carries (1.8 average). His Steelers are 10 point dogs to the Bucs, putting them in a situation where they'll need to throw more. These factors have driven Harris's number lower than it should be. As always, zig when they zag. It's also worth mentioning that the Bucs have been far better against the pass (1st in DVOA) than the run (15th).
Mark Ingram u23.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM): Alvin Kamara returned last week to handle 23 rushing attempts to Ingram's 9. Taysom Hill also chipped in with 9 rushing attempts as his own. Add in that the Saints are underdogs to the Bengals, it makes sense that Ingram's projections are right at or below this number.
Marquez Callaway o29.5 receiving yards -105 (BetMGM): Callaway will operate as the Saints #2 wide receiver with Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), and Deonte Harty (foot) all out. This line simply doesn't reflect that reality, where projections are quite a bit higher than this.
Deebo Samuel o5.5 receptions +126 (FanDuel): This is fantastic odds on Samuel's over (which matches projections) against a bad Falcons secondary.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Pat Mahomes u298.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings): Yes, I'm taking Mahomes's under, perhaps the most terrifying bet in football. Remember, we're betting the price, not the player, and projections are consistently lower than his number. Mahomes has a tough matchup against the Bills.
Kyler Murray does not throw an INT +100 (BetMGM): Murray's turnover worthy play percentage (from PFF) sits at 2.4%, 7th best in the league. He's playing a bad Seahawks defense. I like him not throwing a pick here.
Stef Diggs o7.5 receptions +115 (DraftKings): This matches Diggs's projection. I would take dog odds on either side.
JuJu Smith-Schuster u4.5 receptions +116 (FanDuel): I am again chasing the dog odds on a number that matches projection.
Rondale Moore o5.5 receptions +125 (BetMGM): This is a fair number for Moore, but I'm not turning down the odds at +125 against an extremely bad Seahawks defense.