Prop Bets: Week 9

· Brady,Week 9 2023,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Sunday Morning Slate

Isiah Pacheco u21.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Sunday 1PM Slate

Jaren Hall o185.5 passing yards -110 (PointBet)

CJ Stroud u245.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)

Jerome Ford o42.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)

Kenneth Walker o52.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)

Michael Thomas u52.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Jordan Addison o44.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Trey McBride u42.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Chris Olave u4.5 receptions +140 (DraftKings)

Sunday 4PM Slate

AJ Brown o6.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings)

Sunday Night Football

Ja'Marr Chase o84.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel)

 

Monday Night Football

Zach Wilson u0.5 interceptions +120 (DraftKings)