Prop Bets: Wildcard Round

· Brady,Wildcard Round 2023,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

All bets assume a risk of 1 unit.

Saturday Slate
Joe Flacco u275.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel)
Joe Flacco u0.5 interceptions +140 (Bet365)
David Njoku u57.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel)
Dalton Schultz u3.5 receptions +130 (Bet365)
Amari Cooper o5.5 receptions +124 (FanDuel)
Tua Tagovailoa o21.5 completions +114 (DraftKings)
Jaylen Waddle o45.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)

Sunday Slate
Michael Gallup o10.5 receiving yards (Bet365)
Jameson Williams u34.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)