Baltimore @ Tampa Bay (+1.5)
Power rankings: Baltimore 6, Tampa Bay 7
Strength: 2.04
Spread thoughts: This spread has remained at 1.5
Keys to the game: The Ravens offense vs the Bucs defense should be a fun one, with both of them ranked 5th in DVOA on that respective side of the ball. The Ravens should win their one on one matchups in the trenches, as their offensive line has been rejuvenated with the return of LT Ronnie Stanley while the Bucs pass rush has been underwhelming. Tampa ranks 9th in pressure rate (24.7%) but are blitzing 31.9% of the time, which is 5th highest. A blitz-heavy scheme is a staple of Todd Bowles defense, which should come in handy against Lamar Jackson who typically struggles against the blitz. Tampa Bay is dealing with several injuries in the secondary, with CB Carlton Davis (hip), slot CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (quad), and S Antoine Winfield (concussion) are all slated to miss. On the Ravens side, Mark Andrews missed practice all week with a knee injury, but he is expected to play despite his questionable tag. Andrews is a massive part of the Ravens passing attack and is having a fantastic season -- any hindrance to his ability is a massive loss to a very effective Ravens aerial attack. This matchup comes down to the battle in the trenches and how effective Andrews will be -- I still expect the Bucs secondary to handle the Ravens receivers despite the injuries. On the ground, the Ravens rushing attack didn't miss a beat without RB JK Dobbins. That should be a slight advantage to the Ravens -- the Bucs rank 11th in rush defense DVOA.
The Bucs offense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 19th in DVOA. This is certainly a figure that we'd expect to improve as the season progresses. The talent is simply too strong. Tom Brady, despite his marital woes, is 6th in PFF grades. The offensive line has dealt with injuries to center and left guard, but they're still strong as a unit -- C Robert Hainsey has filled in admirably, and their strong at the other three positions. LG Luke Goedeke has been the one true weakness (who may be getting benched), but the Ravens don't have their best interior defensive player (Calais Campbell, illness). The rest of the Ravens pass rush is below average (they have just a 19.3% pressure rate), which should give Brady a lot of time to operate. Chris Godwin/Mike Evans will be the featured receivers with Russell Gage (hamstring) out and Julio Jones (knee) questionable. They'll be facing an elite Ravens secondary that ranks 8th in passing DVOA. Baltimore is much worse at run defense (23rd in DVOA), which could give the Bucs an advantage on the ground.
Prop bets:
Mike Evans o65.5 receiving yards -125 (PointBet): The game environment sits well for Evans. The Bucs are slight underdogs with a total of 46.5. Brady is projected to throw around 40 passes, and given the injuries to Tampa's receivers many of those should go Evans's way. I'm seeing most projections in the high 70s/low 80s for Evans.