Recommended Wager: Indianapolis (+5.5) over Tennessee

With a strength of 5.19, the model likes the Colts on the road against the Titans.

· Week 3 2021,Titans,Colts,Brady

The biggest questionwith the Colts is who the fuck is going to be their quarterback. Carson Wentz casually sprained BOTH of his ankles last week, which is a scary proposition for both bettors and Vegas alike. I made the determination that Wentz was likely to play with limited mobility, and as a result we bumped the recommendation down from 3 units to 2. Wentz ended up practicing (albeit limited) on Friday and is officially QUESTIONABLE, which makes me think we made the right call. If things work out I'll call myself a genius in the recap. If they don't, I'll call myself unlucky. Handicapping 101. If Wentz can't go, rookie 4th rounder Jacob Eason will be at the helm, who hasn't played a snap since 2019 at Washington. The offensive line is typically one of the best in the league, and even though a foot injury will keep RT Braden Smith from playing, they're still an incredibly tough line to penetrate. Highlighting the bunch is LG Quenton Nelson, who is arguably the best offensive lineman in football. Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, TE Jack Doyle, and RB Nyheim Hines highlight the receiving options that is lacking in star power. Jonathan Taylor will get the bulk of the carries at running back. Thus far, the offensive line has underperformed (that won't last), Wentz has been bad (that might), and the receivers have underwhelmed (that also might). On defense, the front 7 is carried by star power -- DeForest Buckner (DT) and Darius Leonard (LB) are two of the better players in the league at their respective positions. They lack options behind Bucker and Leonard, though edge rusher/21st overall selection Kwity Paye has shown potential, earning a 75.1 PFF grade through 2 games. The secondary gets a huge boost after Xavier Rhodes is set to return after missing the first two games with a calf injury. He and slot man Kenny Moore are a solid 1-2 punch atcorner.  

The 1-1 Titans have had a fun start to the season. Week 1 they got embarrassed at home by the Cardinals (14th in our power rankings), losing 38-13. Last week they beat Seattle (6th) 33-30 on the road. Football is a funny game. QB Ryan Tannehill has been impressive in both games, earning a 86.2 PFF grade on the season while completing 64% of his passes (-1.9% below expectation) and gaining 7.5 yards per attempt. The receiving duo of Julio Jones and AJ Brown is naturally one of the league’s best, but they've both been up and down to start the season. It may take some time for the offense overall to get acclimated, but we naturally expect it to flourish in the long run. The offensive line is likely better than it has been, but they've been poor to start the season in both subjective and advanced statistics. LT Taylor Lewan has been surprisingly poor, allowing 5 pressures on the season and earning a 24.1 PFF pass rushing grade. The Big Dog Derrick Henry will get the bulk of the carries, he hasn't lost a step thus far and puts games away when the Titans get a lead. On defensive, new addition Bud Depree has been a failure so far, generating just 3 pressures through 2 games. He's also very questionable with a knee injury after missing practice Friday. Harold Landry, Denico Autry, and Jeffrey Simmons have at least been decent, but the Titans overall aren't getting a solid return on their investment up front. In the secondary, 1st round rookie Caleb Farley will miss another game due to a shoulder injury, leaving Jackrabbit Jenkins, Chris Jackson, and Kristian Fulton to lead a corner group that leaves a lot to be desired.