NY Giants @ Washington
Power rankings: Washington 24, NY Giants 32
Keys to the game: The Giants offense (32nd in DVOA) vs the Commanders defense (30th) is a true battle of suck, especially when you consider that the Commanders DVOA includes games with Montez Sweat and Chase Young, who have since been traded away for draft picks. For the Giants, it comes down to what UDFA rookie Danny DeVito can do against the Commanders. He clearly is far from ready to be an NFL starter -- and probably never will be -- but at the end of the day, the model can't pass up a double digit underdog against a bottom-tier Commanders team that is clearly in sell mode. The scariest part of the Commanders defense was their pass rush, but that's clearly no longer the case without Young and Sweat. The Giants boost one of the worst offensive lines in football, and that helps explain why they struggled so badly last week against the Cowboys and the Parsons/Lawrence nightmare. Further, the Commanders have consistent issues in their secondary (apart from Kendall Fuller). The Commanders excel against the run (10th in DVOA), thanks to the combination or Daron Payne and Johnathan Allen in the middle, so the Giants will need to rely on DeVito to make throws (or scramble), rather than feeding Saquon Barkley all game.
The Commanders offense sits at 22nd in DVOA vs a Giants defense that ranks 29th. Sam Howell is taking too many sacks, but he's making up for it with big plays. Howell currently leads the league in "big time throws" (24), a stat from PFF that tracks impressive, hard-to-do downfield throws. His 47 sacks, however, are 14 more than second place. The problem with sacks are a combination of the offensive line and Howell himself, who clearly prefers to hold onto the ball to make big plays. The Giants defense does have a decent pass rush (they're 11th in pass rush win rate), largely thanks to Dexter Lawrence - a true nose tackle who ranks 1st in PFF grades among defensive tackles. The Giants issues on defense comes from their cornerback room, which leaves Terry McLaurin in an advantageous matchup.
LA Chargers @ Green Bay (+3.0)
Power rankings: LA Chargers 12, Green Bay 18
Keys to the game: The Chargers offense sits at 8th in DVOA, going up against a Packers defense that ranks 23rd. Justin Herbert is sitting at 14th in PFF grades, a metric that would likely be higher, but his offensive line (outside of LT Rashawn Slater) and injuries to the skill position are currently letting him down. Keenan Allen, running primarily out of the slot, remains dominant, and Austin Ekeler continues to be a solid receiving option out of the backfield. The Packers have a solid front 7 - they can win at the edge (Rashan Gary and Preston Smith) up the middle (Devonte Wyatt) and at the second level (DeVondre Cambpell). However, since trading away Rasaul Douglas, their secondary is lacking. CB Jaire Alexander, a former first team all pro corner, is currently having a down year and battling injuries. Alexander is allowing a 128.2 passer rating into his coverage.
The Packers offense sits at 18th in DVOA, but that's still far better than the Chargers defense, which is 27th. The Chargers have been equally bad against the pass (25th in DVOA) than the run (24th). Despite having Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, they rank 30th in pass rush win rate and 19th in pressure rate despite blitzing 14th most often. Asante Samuel Jr has had a solid second season, but the rest of the corners are either injured or struggling. Jordan Love (20th in PFF grades, 22nd in ESPN's total QBR) is playing at QB purgatory levels, where you aren't thrilled about your quarterbacks play, but things aren't bad enough for you to move on either. The offensive line has a few strengths (Elgton Jenkins and Zach Tom), but there are several weaknesses that capable players like Mack and Bosa can take advantage of. The receiving group is young and up and coming (all are 1st and 2nd year players). They'll need to step up and take advantage of the Chargers weaknesses to keep up with Herbert and Allen.
Las Vegas (+12.0) @ Miami
Power rankings: Las Vegas 26, Miami 8
Keys to the game: The Raiders offense sits at 29th in DVOA while the Dolphins defense is at 22nd. Las Vegas's offensive line has improved this year -- typically reliant on LT Kolton Miller and 4 revolving doors, RT Thayer Munford Jr. and RG Greg Van Roten have both stepped up this season. DeVante Adams, Jakobi Myers, and Josh Jacobs are an exciting group of play-makers, but the Raiders simply do not have an answer at quarterback. They're giving Aidan O'Connell a shot, who currently ranks 36th out of 37 qualifiers in PFF grades. The Dolphins strong defensive line will challenge the Raiders offensive line in the trenches, while Jalen Ramsey will likely be asked to take on Adams. Ramsey has played in two games since returning from an offseason knee injury, and he's currently allowing a 29.9 passer rating into his coverage, earning him an 80.3 PFF grade. Miami also has a strong safety tandem between Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliot. They've been stronger against the pass (17th in DVOA) than the run (26th), but the game script makes it unlikely the Raiders will rely on the run.
The Dolphins offense sits at 2nd in DVOA while the Raiders defense is at 18th. Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and the Mike McDaniels offense have been virtually unstoppable all season. Their offensive line has also improved compared to recent seasons, and they'll at close to full strength with LT Terron Armstead playing. The Raiders on defense will look to Maxx Crosby, their one true pass rushing threat, to make a difference. Crosby is routinely one of the better pass rushers in football, and he'll primarily be going up against Dolphins RT Austin Jackson, who represents a weak point on the offensive line. Marucs Peters and Nate Hobbs are decent corners, but they simply don't stand a chance against the Dolphins speedy receivers if Tua is given too much time to throw.