LA Rams (Pick Em) @ Arizona
Power rankings: LA Rams 19, Arizona 30
Keys to the game: The Rams on offense are 13th in DVOA against a Cardinals defense that ranks 31st (29th pass, 29th run). Despite lackluster traditional QB status, Matt Stafford is 9th in PFF grades. He has the 6th highest big-time-throw rate (6.0%) and the 3rd lowest turnover worthy play rate (1.9%), showcasing how effective he's been as a passer, even if the dated, traditional stats aren't backing that up. The Rams advantage comes from their receivers (Kupp and Nacua) vs the Cardinals brutally bad cornerback room. To demonstrate how bad the Arizona cornerback room has been - Marco Wilson leads the team in coverage snaps among all corners, and he's surrendering a 139.2 passer rating into his coverage. Quarterbacks are completing 78.5% of their passes when targeting Wilson (on 65 targets), completing 5 touchdowns without any interceptions. Wilson's coverage grade from PFF is a 40. Arizona ranks 31st in pressure rate and 27th in pass rush win rate, but edge rushers Dennis Gradeck and Zaven Collins have played better as the season has progressed. Meanwhile, the Rams offensive line has struggled, particularly on the left side. In the run game, RB Kyren Williams is expected to return from IR. The 2022 5th rounder out of Notre Dame was one of the more productive running backs in football prior to injuring his ankle week 6.
The Cardinals are 27th in DVOA vs a Rams defense that ranks 23rd (18th pass, 25th run). Kyler Murray is 2 games into his 2023 season (thanks to a December 2022 ACL tear) - he's completing 62.9% of his passes and gaining 7.5 yards per attempt, good for a 62.0 PFF passing grade - which is roughly in line with what he was doing last year prior to the injury. The Cardinals have understandably limited Murray's rushing attempts since returning - he has 7 designed runs in 3 games to go along with 6 scrambles. When asked to run, Murray has been electric, gaining 6.5 yards per attempt on designed runs and 10.5 yards per attempt on scrambles. The offense has one of the worst offensive lines in football with a lackluster-at-best group of receivers. Without Murray suddenly turning into an all-pro passer, they'll remain at the bottom of DVOA and other advanced metric rankings. The Rams defense ranks 20th in pass rush win rate and 30th in pressure rate, but I fully expect Aaron Donald to have a decisive advantage regardless of where he lines up. The Rams have yet to find much production outside of Donald, showing the necessity to keep him double teamed. The Rams secondary has also performed poorly. They're also 30th in the NFL in DVOA when covering tight ends, which could lead to a big game from Cardinals tight end Trey McBride.
Buffalo (+3.5) @ Philadelphia
Power rankings: Buffalo 6, Philly 5
The Bills offense is 3rd in DVOA against an Eagles defense that ranks 17th (19th pass, 5th run). Josh Allen has dealt with a lot of false narratives regarding his turnover proneness this season - although his 12 interceptions is 2nd most in the NFL, his turnover worthy play ratio of 2.4% is 8th best. He's also 2nd in PFF grades and 4th in ESPN's total QBR. Simply put: Allen is having an elite season. The offensive line is improved over recent seasons, and Khalil Shakir (slot), Dalton Kincaid (tight end), and Gabe Davis (outside) provide excellent complimentary options behind Stef Diggs. The Eagles are 5th in pass rush win rate, thanks to a slew of pass rushers (Jalen Carter, Hassan Reddick, Josh Sweat, and Fletcher Cox all have 27 or more pressures this season). Carter, a rookie defensive tackle out of Georgia, could be a disruptive player as Buffalo struggles at the guard positions. The Eagles also have an elite secondary, although both Darius Slay and James Bradberry are having down seasons, Reed Blankenship and Kevin Byard hold things together as a strong safety tandem.
The Eagles are 6th in offensive DVOA while the Bills rank 15th (16th against the pass, 14th against the run). Their offensive line is one of the best in football, they have an elite 1-2 punch at receiver (AJ Brown/Devonta Smith), and their quarterback is 12th in PFF grades and 6th in ESPN's QBR. They are without TE Dallas Goedert (forearm), which does leave them a bit thin at the receiver positions - nobody has been able to contribute much outside of Brown and Smith. The Bills defensive line is far better pass rushing (2nd in pass rush win rate) then run stopping (16th). Their secondary improved greatly thanks to a deadline addition of CB Rasul Douglas (currently 3rd among all CBs in PFF grades), giving them another elite option in front of their strong safety tandem (Jordan Poyer/Micah Hyde). The Eagles have one of the stronger run games in football, giving them a matchup advantage in the run game.
Chicago @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Power rankings: Chicago 29, Minnesota 16
The Bears offense sits at 24th in offensive DVOA vs the Vikings defense that sits at 9th. Unsurprisingly, the Bears are far stronger running the football (9th in DVOA) than passing (23rd), and the return of Justin Fields likely widens that gap even further. Fields earned a 54.2 passing grade from PFF in his first game back since week 6, but he ran for 104 yards. The Bears have an average offensive line, but RB D'Onta Foreman has been solid this season. The receiving group doesn't have much outside of DJ Moore. The Vikings do not have an impressive defensive line, ranking 14th in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate, with everyone not named Danielle Hunter failing to generate consistent pressure. The Vikings do blitz more than anytime in football, but Justin Fields's yards per attempt passing vs the blitz (7.3) is about to equal to his yards per attempt passing without a blitz (7.5). The Vikings strength of their defense is their secondary, which shouldn't have any issue locking down the Bears receivers.
The story of the Vikings offense has been injuries to their best two players, with Kirk Cousins out for the year with an Achilles injury and Justin Jefferson nursing a hamstring problem. Jefferson has a chance to return for Monday Night, but that's far from a certainty. Josh Dobbs - who the Vikings acquired at the deadline - has played well since taking over in week 9. He has a 65.6% completion percentage, 6.7 yards per attempt, and a 75.3 PFF grade. Minnesota has a strong offensive line (particularly at the tackle positions), while rookie WR Jordan Addison and TE TJ Hockenson have both stepped up since Jefferson's injury. Minnesota has been far better passing (12th in DVOA) than running (28th), which is largely due to the struggles of Alexander Mattison. The Bears defense is 25th in DVOA (23rd pass, 27th run). They acquired DE Montez Sweat at the trade deadline from the Commanders, giving them one capable player on the defensive line. They have an elite corner (Jaylon Johnson) and linebacker (TJ Edwards), but have holes virtually everywhere else.