San Francisco @ Washington (+13.5)
Power rankings: San Fran 1, Washington 30
Keys to the game: Even after last weeks 4 pick debacle, the 49ers remain the clear best offense in football, ranking 1st in total offensive DVOA. They're 1st in passing DVOA and 2nd in rushing DVOA, trailing only the Lamar Jackson led Ravens. The lone weakness on the offense is the offensive line, with blatant holes at LG, C, and RT. LT Trent Williams remains one of the premier tackles in all of football and 9 year vet RG Jon Feliciano has randomly decided he's really good at football. Feliciano ranks 6th in PFF grades, and at 31 years young is having his best season by a landslide. Even still, offensive lines with that many weaknesses are easy to pick on since the same lineman play the same position on every snap. As a result, Brock Purdy is under pressure on 39.2% of dropbacks (13th most), but the rest of the 49ers offense is so damn good that they get away with it. The combination of Purdy, Brandon Ayiuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery to go along with Kyle Shanahan's brain has been too much for defenses all season. Besides, the Commanders defense is in no position to exploit any weakness on any team - they currently rank 31st in DVOA, doing better against the run (18th in DVOA) than the pass (dead last). The once powerful defensive line was deprived of Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline, rendering them unable to take advantage of any offensive line issues. At the very least, Johnathan Allen and Daron Payne are the two strongest pass rushers, and both line up along the interior where they'll avoid Williams. The secondary is also a mess - Kendall Fuller (knee) and Benjamin St-Juste (concussion) are both likely out, leaving rookies Emmanuel Forbes and Jartavius Martin as the only corners on the team who have actually played a snap this season. This means that the Commanders will have a corner on the field Sunday (likely Christian Holmes) who has not played a single snap in the 2023 season.
First thing is first with the Commanders offense: who the fuck is playing quarterback? The Commanders announced on Wednesday that Sam Howell would ride the pine, leaving Jacoby Brissett to start. However, the Commanders then announced on Friday that Brissett suffered a hamstring injury, officially slapping him with the questionable tag. Brissett and Howell are very different quarterbacks, but at the end of the day there isn't a large difference in efficiency between the two. Howell is a big-play, boom-or-bust, aggressive quarterback who is stylistically going to have stretches where he looks like the next Patrick Mahomes and stretches where he looks like, well, there's a number of shitty quarterbacks who you can insert here. Brissett isn't "safe" by any stretch, but he's nowhere near Howell in terms of aggression. As for the Commanders offense, they're 23rd in DVOA (25th pass, 18th run). The offensive line and skill position players are both below average. There's some talent (RG Sam Cosmi, WR Terry McLaurin), but far too many holes to make up for it. The 49ers defense, meanwhile, is 4th in DVOA - ranking better against the pass (4th) than the run (15th). It's a defense without a weakness. Up front, their pass rush is 3rd in pressure rate despite blitzing 30th most often, led by Nick Bosa, Chase Young (revenge game), and DT Javon Hargrave. The linebackers are led by Fred Warner, arguably the best in the game, while the secondary is filled with solid players. The Commanders rushing offense is the only part of this game that isn't a total mismatch.
Las Vegas (+3.0) @ Indianapolis
Power rankings: Las Vegas 22, Indy 24
The Raiders offense is 29th in DVOA (29th pass, 24th run). Their offensive line has come into form this season, which can make a reasonable claim that they're a top 10 unit. They're should also have their best player, LT Kolton Miller (shoulder) returning to the starting lineup. The wide receiver combo of DeVante Adams and Jakobi Meyers is a decent 1-2 punch, but the options behind them (Hunter Renfrow and Austin Hooper) have struggled). In the backfield, the Raiders will be without Josh Jacobs (quad), however, sophomore Zamir White has impressed playing in Jacobs's absence. White's 4.5 yards per carry and 3.63 yards per carry after contact far eclipse what Jacobs has done this season (3.5 and 2.35). The Raiders problems come from the quarterback position - Aidan O'Connell currently ranks 32nd (out of 40) in PFF grades and 29th (out of 30) in ESPN's QBR. The Colts defense sits at 18th in DVOA, ranking better against the pass (14th in DVOA) than the run (24th). Their pass rush has turned into a force - they currently rank 1st in pressure rate despite ranking dead-last in blitz rate, and are 5th in pass rush win rate. They can bring pressure off the edge (Samson Ebukam, Tyquan Lewis, Kwity Paye) as well as the interior (DeForest Buckner), making this a fun in the trenches matchup. Their secondary is far bigger issue (they have Kenny Moore and nobody) as well as their lineman/linebackers against the run.
The Colts offense ranks 17th in DVOA (19th pass, 8th run). They have one of the better offensive lines in football, especially with Braden Smith (knee) likely to return despite his questionable tag. The skill position group will also get top receiver Michael Pittman back - Pittman suffered a concussion on a brutal hit in week 15 which would have literally killed a lesser man, including myself. Behind Pittman, rookie Josh Downs has shown some flashes, but has lacked consistency overall, and the rest of the Colts receiver/tight end room is actual garbage. The running game naturally benefits from the offensive line, but a healthy Jonathan Taylor only makes it that much more lethal. The Colts issues - much like the Raiders - start with the quarterback. Gardner Minshew ranks 34th (out of 40) in PFF grades and 15th (out of 30) in ESPN's QBR. Minshew has had issues with turnover this season, ranking 6th worst in turnover-worthy play ratio (PFF). The Raiders defense has been low-key good this season, ranking 8th in DVOA (6th pass, 19th run). They're 9th in pressure rate despite a modest 25th ranking in blitz rate, largely thanks to Maxx Crosby. Crosby's 82 pressures are 5th most in the NFL while his 91.6 run defense grade from PFF is 2nd most among all edge rushers. Malcolm Koonce, a 3rd year player out of Buffalo, has broken out in the second half of the season to complement Crosby. The linebacking core and secondary don't have any standout players, but since bringing in CB Jack Jones from New England, there isn't a single weakness for opposing offenses to pick on.
Maxx Crosby vs Braden Smith should be a fun one!
Detroit (+6.0) @ Dallas
Power rankings: Detroit 8, Dallas 4
The Lions offense ranks 5th in DVOA (9th pass, 4th run). They're line by their offensive line, which could lay a legit claim to being the best in all of football. The weaponry includes several elite options: slot man Amon-Ra St. Brown, tight end Sam Laporta, and David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield. Jared Goff has fit nicely in the "game manager" role, lacking big play upside but ranks 7th best in turnover worthy play rate (2.3%). The Cowboys defense sits at 6th in DVOA (8th pass, 12th run). Their strength is their pass rush, which ranks 4th in pressure rate and 1st in pass rush win rate. DE Michah Parsons ranks 1st in pressures, 2nd in win rate, and 2nd in PFF pass rush grade (both behind Myles Garrett) while Demarcus Lawrence is solid both as a pass rusher and against the run. LB Markquese Bell - a 2nd year player who was undrafted - has been outstanding in coverage. In the secondary, Daron Bland and Stefon Gilmore are a solid 1-2 punch. Bland is known for his pick sixes, but he's also allowing a miniscule 51.9% completion rate into his coverage, and quarterbacks have an absurdly poor 46.5 rating when targeting Bland. Dallas's one weakness has come when covering tight ends, ranking just 26th in DVOA and giving rookie Sam Laporta a potential matchup advantage.
The Cowboys offense is 9th in DVOA (10th pass, 14th run). They have one of the better offensive lines in football, a strong group of skill position players, and a should-be MVP candidate at quarterback. LT Tyron Smith (back) is technically questionable, but the Cowboys appear optimistic that he'll play. That said, Dallas doesn't have a capable backup for Smith, which will leave a hole on Prescott's blindside if Smith can't play. The Lions defense is 14th in DVOA (16th pass, 4th run). They run a blitz-heavy scheme, currently blitzing 5th most often, which has led to pressure 35.6% of the time, currently most in the league. 2nd year edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson has turned into one of the better edge rushers in all of football, currently ranking 7th in PFF pass rush grades, 3rd in total pressures, and 5th in win rate. However, there isn't a ton of help behind Hutchinson - evident by Detroit's 27th ranking in team pass rush win rate. Prescott's PFF grades are nearly identical (87.4 and 87.1) when blitzes vs not blitzes, making it hard to draw any kind of conclusions if consistent blitzes will hurt or help the Cowboys offense. The Lions secondary has struggled this season - their team coverage grade of 56.6 from PFF is 27th this year. Their best player has been rookie CB Brian Branch, who typically covers the slot, allowing the Lions best corner to see plenty of the Cowboys best receiver, CeeDee Lamb.