Sunday 1PM slate
Tom Brady u0.5 interceptions +120 (Caesars): Brady has just 5 turnover worthy plays on the entire season. His throws a turnover worthy play 1.1% of the time, lowest in the league. He hasn't thrown a single turnover worthy play in 7/10 games this season. I'm taking this bet whenever I can get plus money on it. The Colts also have a struggling secondary (yes, including Xavier Rhodes0 -- they're 2nd in DVOA vs the run but just 20th against the pass.
Miles Sanders u66.5 rushing yards -111 (BetMGM): This number is far higher than Sanders's projection of 58.8. Jalen Hurts is also a big part of the Eagles rushing attack, and even Boston Scott will chip in for a few carries. Even with the Giants poor run defense, it's going to be hard for Sanders to get enough carries to reach this number.
Mo Allie Cox o10.5 receiving yards -120 (PointBet): In an ideal world, Colts HC Fran Reich would realize that Cox is the Colt's best receiving tight end and he'd soar over that number. That won't happen, of course, as Jack Doyle will continue to roll as the Colts #1 tight end. However, Cox's projection is 19.6. He's gone over this number in 7/11 games this season. Cox will face off against the Bucs, who naturally have a solid pass defense (7th in DVOA). However, teams have elected to attack them with tight ends -- the Bucs are 7th in pass attempts faced/game to tight ends.
Sunday 4PM slate
Kyle Juszczyk o6.5 receiving yards -120 (BetMGM): Juszczyk's projection is 14.4, and he's gone over this number in 7/10 games this season. The 49eres always have a few designed pass plays for Juszczyk -- it won't take much to go over this number.
Odell Beckham Jr u3.5 receptions +152 (FanDuel): Beckham's projection sits at 3.8 -- it's really the +152 that makes this bet enticing. In Beckham's first game with the Rams, he ran a route on just 11 of 47 drop backs. That was week 10, and with the extra bye week, I fully expect Beckham to be far more involved in the Rams offense. However, we've seen time and time again that it takes receivers time to get acclimated to a new offense -- even receivers who have had a full off-season to learn the playbook have struggled to start the year. I'm happy to continue fading Beckham until he can prove otherwise.
George Kittle o5.5 receptions +130 (Caesars): +130 means we need this to hit 43.5% of the time for value. Kittle's median projection is at 5.1, which is roughly what he averages per game.
Sunday Night Football
Baker Mayfield o5.5 rushing yards -102 (FanDuel): Mayfield has gone over this number in 7/10 games this season and is projected at 8.7. At what's essentially even money, this is solid value.
Jarvis Landry o44.5 receiving yards -111 (Caesars): Landry's projection is at 57.4. With the Browns being 3.5-point dogs to the Ravens, the Browns will likely need to throw, and Landry is the clear cut #1 option since Beckham has departed (though he was first option before that, too). Landry, who runs 58.5% of his routes from the slots, sees targets within 10 yards 56.4% of the time, an area of the field where the Ravens rank 27th in DVOA.