The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site (or were manually hunted).
When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
Kansas City Props:
- Patrick Mahomes o25.5 completions +104 (FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes o26.5 rushing yars -110 (FanDuel)
- Rashee Rice o6.5 recptions -105 (FanDuel)
- Chris Jones o0.25 sacks +130 (DraftKings)
- Isiah Pacheco u16.5 rushing attempts -115 (DraftKings)
San Francisco Props:
- Brock Purdy MVP +235 (DraftKings)
- Deebo Samuel u58.5 receiving yards +100 (DraftKings)
- George Kittle o4.5 receptions +130 (DraftKings)
- Fred Warner u8.5 tackles -125 (Wynn)
Game Props:
- Total Players with a Rush Attempt u7.5 +160 (DraftKings)