Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value.
Dallas (+2.5) @ Cleveland
Power Rankings: Dallas 6, Cleveland 13
Wager Strength: 4.03
Closing Line: CLE -2.0, line moved toward the model
RESULT: Dallas 33, Cleveland 17. WIN
NY Jets @ San Francisco (-4.0)
Power Rankings: NY Jets 14, San Fran 1
Wager Strength: 3.04
Line closed: SF -3.5, line moved toward the model
RESULT: SF 32, Jets 19. WIN
Houston (-2.5) @ Indianapolis
Power Rankings: Houston 7, Indy 25
Wager Strength: 3.02
Line closed: HOU -3.0, line moved toward the model
RESULT: Houston 29, Indy 27. LOSS
Carolina @ New Orleans (-4.0)
Power Rankings: Carolina 32, New Orleans 15
Wager Strength: 2.97
Line closed: NOR -3.5, line moved away from the model
Result: Saints 47, Carolina 10. WIN
Arizona @ Buffalo (-6.5)
Power Rankings: Arizona 27, Buffalo 4
Wager Strength: 2.76
Line closed: BUF -6.5, line stayed the same
Result: Buffalo 34, Arizona 28. LOSS
Baltimore (+3.0) @ Kansas City
Power Rankings: Baltimore 3, Kansas City 2
Wager Strength: 2.5
Line closed: KC -3.0, line stayed the same
Result: KC 27, Baltimore 20. LOSS
Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Atlanta
Power Rankings: Pitt 19, Atlanta 18
Wager Strength: 2.03
Line closed: ATL -4.0, line moved away from the modoel
Final score: PIT 18, ATL 10. WIN
Recap: 4-3 on the week. Of our 3 losses, two were by a .5 point and the other (KC/BAL) was off by an Isaiah Likely toe. Our 4 wins included 2 dogs that won outright (should have taken the moneyline, obviously) and 2 favorites that both won without much trouble, including a blowout in the NO/CAR game. The lines tended to flow in our direction, which allowed us to get in on HOU -2.5 before it moved to a key 3.0 number, which is always a positive even if the result didn't quite work out.
Prop Bets:
Will Levis u238.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): WIN +0.88 units (127 yards)
Anthony Richardson u43.5 rushing yards -113 (FanDuel): Loss -1 unit (56 yards)
Zack Moss u48.5 rushing yards -117 (Caesars): WIN +0.85 units (44 yards)
Stef Diggs u60.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings): WIN +0.87 units (33 yards)
Drake London o5.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): LOSS -1.0 unit (2 catches)
Chris Olave o5.5 receptions +108 (Caesars): LOSS -1.0 unit (2 catches)
Marvin Harrison Jr o5.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): LOSS -1.0 unit (2 catches
Dak Prescott u294.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): WIN +0.88 units (179 yards)
Devante Adams u70.5 receiving yards -105 (DraftKings): WIN +0.95 units (59 yards)
Christian McCaffrey u37.5 receiving yards -119 (Caesars): N/A, CMC did not play due to a calf injury. I suppose that makes me feel better that I was on the under.
Result: 5-4, +0.43 units. All the unders hit, all the overs (with dog odds) missed. CMC was declared inactive, and therefore his bet voids.
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Props record: 5-4, +0.43 units