Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Atlanta (-1.5) @ Arizona
Line closed: ATL -2.0, line moved toward the model
The Falcons had no answer for TE Trey McBride (8 catches for 131 yards) or the Cardinals run game, that gained 122 yards on 26 attempts (4.7 YPA). On offense, they were one dimensional. The run game averaged 4.5 yards per attempt on 41 carries (184 total yards) and 2 touchdowns, but the passing game was inept. Taylor Henicke, prior to being injured, was averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt. This was a close game, but the better team won.
Final score: Arizona 25, Atlanta 23
Result: LOSS
Recommended Wager: NY Giants (+16.0) @ Dallas
Line closed: DAL -17.5, line moved away from the model
Two words: Fuck. Show.
Final score: Dallas 49, NY Giants 17
Result: LOSS
Props recap:
Jerome Ford o40.5 rushing yards +106 (FanDuel): Ford ran for 107 yards. WIN +1.06 units
Diontae Johnson u65.5 receiving yards -120 (PointBet): Johnson had 17 yards receiving. WIN +0.83 units
Ja'Marr Chase o81.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Chase had 124 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Jordan Love u0.5 interceptions +155 (PointBet): Love had 2 picks. LOSS -1 unit
Tommy DeVito o157.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings): DeVito had 86 passing yards. LOSS -1 unit
Geno Smith u262.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Smith had 369 passing yards. LOSS -1 unit
Michael Wilson u34.5 receiving yards -105 (Bet365): Wilson had 34 yards (wipes sweat). WIN +0.95 units
Jaxon Smith-Njigba u3.5 receptions +105 (DraftKings): JSN had 4 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Aidan O'Connell u208.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): O'Connell had 153 yards. WIN +0.87 units
Zach Wilson u209.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Wilson had 263 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Props recap: 5-5, -0.38 units
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Total: 15-19
Props Record
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Total: 53-46, +7.22 units