Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
NY Giants (+10.0) @ Washington
Line closed: WAS -7.5, line moved toward the model
We took the Giants +10.0 and they won outright. A sweat free win would be an understatmenet.
Tommy DeVito was sacked 9 times, but he gained 9.5 yards per attempt and completed 69.2% of his passes on 26 attempts. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley averaged 5.9 yards per attempt on the ground and had 57 receiving yards. The Commanders did their best to lose this game, which included 3 Sam Howell interceptions, 4 sacks, and 4 fumbles.
Final score: NY Giants 31, Washington 19
Result: WIN
LA Chargers @ Green Bay (+3.0)
Line closed: LAC -3.0, line stayed the same
This was an even, back and forth game. Things got spicy in the 4th, when Justin Herbert led the Chargers on an 11 play, 63 yard drive that resulted in a touchdown that chewed 5:36 off the clock, giving the Chargers a 4 point lead. On the next drive, Green Bay answered with a 75 yard drive of their own, which wasw capped off with a Jordan Love touchdown pass to Romeo Doubs. The Packers then led 23-20, which is how things ended.
Final score: LA Chargers 23, Green Bay 20
Result: WIN
Las Vegas (+12.0) @ Miami
Line closed: MIA -14.0, line moved away from the model
The Raiders had lots of issues on offense - they scored a whopping 0 second half points and Aidan O'Connell threw 3 interceptions. But the defense was able to keep the Dolphins run game at bay - in total, Miami gained just 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground on 28 attempts. That kept Miami within cover distance throughout the game.
Final score: Miami 20, Las Vegas 13
Result: WIN
Arizona @ Houston (-4.0)
Line closed: HOU -5.5, line moved toward the model
Houston jumped out to a 21-10 lead at the half, which put us in an advantageous spot. Arizona, needing a touchdown, went for it on 4th down on their final 3 drives to end the game, and the Texans stopped them on all 3 of them. Those are the type of results that can swing a bet in either direction, and fortunately we were on the right side of it.
Final score: Houston 21, Arizona 16
Result: WIN
Tampa Bay (+11.5) @ San Francisco
Line closed: SF -13.5, line moved away from the model
Unfortunately for us, the Bucs simply couldn't do enough on offense. Baker Mayfield gained just 5.5 yards per attempt, fumbled, and was sacked 4 times. We figured the 49ers offense would be able to run away with it, but we needed more out of the Tampa passing game to cover.
Final score: San Francisco 27, Tampa 14
Result: LOSS
Seattle @ LA Rams (+1.0)
Line closed: LAR -2.0, line moved toward the model
I had this preview blog written in my head before the game was even close to over. Cooper Kupp inexplicably dropped a wide open bomb right before getting injured, which sidelined him the rest of the game. Matt Stafford missed two wide open passes, and Puka Nauca (outside of a touchdown) was nowhere to be seen. I had the bitch fest written out. We're so unlucky!
But then Geno Smith got hurt, which forced Drew Lock, who is most famous for being a terrible quarterback, into the game. Then the Rams offense started rolling, and with 7:38 to go Darrell Henderson ran up the middle for a touchdown, which put the Rams within 2. That drive was insanely stressful - we originally had a Henderson touchdown pass nullified by an offensive pass interface penalty. We then had a 3rd and 5 fall incomplete, only to be bailed out by defensive pass interface. We were sweating profusely.
But Drew Lock was in at quarterback, and he was there to save the day. Three plays after the Henderson touchdown, Lock threw an interception, giving the Rams the ball at their own 21. They then drove 75 yards and killed 5:12 of clock, resulting in a 22 yard field goal to put them up 1. 1:31 was left on the clock with no timeouts, but suddenly Geno Smith was healthy enough to return.
To his credit, Smith gained 38 yards, which gave Seattle a 55 yard field goal attempt. Fortunately for us, Jason Myers's attempt was wide right. I guess we aren't so unlucky after all (plus, luck doesn't exist. There is only variance and tilt).
Final score: LA Rams 17, Seattle 16
Result: WIN
Sides recap: 5-1. I hope you trusted the fucking process. Interestingly, the lines in our two biggest dog games moved against us. Taking the Giants as 10 point dogs when they closed at 7.5 and the Rams as a 1 point dog when they closed as a 2 point favorite were excellent movements in our favor.
Props:
Dorian Thompson-Robinson o166.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel): Thompson threw for 165 yards. Brutal. LOSS -1 unit
Kyler Murray u241.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Kyler threw for 214 yards. WIN +0.88 units
Aidan O'Connell o196.5 passing yards -115 (Bet365): O'Connell hit 271 yards. WIN +0.87 units
Raheem Mostert u54.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): With De'Von Achane being injured after just 1 carry, we didn't stand a chance. Mostert rushed for 86 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Derrick Henry o55.5 rushing yards -106 (Caesars): Henry rushed for 38 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Josh Reynolds u30.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Reynolds had 11 yards receiving. WIN +0.91 units
Dalton Schultz u50.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): Schultz had 32 yards receiving. WIN +0.91 units
CeeDee Lamb o6.5 receptions -105 (BetMGM): Lamb had 6 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Zach Charbonnet u28.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings): With Kenneth Walker being injured, the Seahawks turned to Charbonnet as their primary back. He ran for 47 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Josh Allen u0.5 interceptions +135 (DraftKings): Allen threw an interception on a hail marry to end the half. LOSS -1 unit
Javonte Williams u67.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Williams ran for 37 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Final result: 5-6 -1.53 units. Considering the hail marry INT, losing an over by one yard, and losing two rushing props because their counter parts got injured, I'm actually pretty pleased with the results.
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Total: 20-20
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Total: 58-52, +5.70 units