Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
2021 sides record: 33-25
2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units
Buffalo @ Detroit (+9.5)
Line closed: BUF -9.5, line remained the same
The Lions hung in with the Bills throughout the game, with Amon-Ra St. Brown leading the way offensively with had 9 catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. The defense had their issues, naturally, but they managed to pressure Josh Allen on 36.5% of dropbacks and held him to 6.0 passing yards per attempt. The Bills won in the end, but covering the spread was never a question.
Final score: Buffalo 28, Detroit 25
Result: WIN
New England (+2.5) @ Minnesota
Line closed: MIN -2.5, line remained the same
The Patriots are a weird team. Known for their defensive and special teams process, they gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown, got beat consistently bad Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson (they did hold Dalvin Cook to 1.9 yards per carry, though), but also had their best offensive performance of the year.
This game featured 6 lead changes. When we're on the dog in that situation, I'm happy. We also missed out on a controversial call that nullified a Hunter Henry touchdown. Credit to prime time Kirk Cousins, who continues to put together 4th quarter winning drives in the weirdness that is the NFL 2022 season.
Final score: Minnesota 33, New England 26
Result: LOSS
Baltimore (-4.0) @ Jacksonville
Line closed: BAL -3.5, line moved away from the model insignificantly
This was another back and forth game, but this time we were on the favorite. The Ravens managed to grab a 27-20 lead with 2:02 left in the 4th after a Josh Oliver touchdown and successful 2 point conversion attempt. Give credit to the Trevor Lawrence in the Jaguars, who then orchestrated a 10 play, 75 yard touchdown drive in 1:48. That brought the score to 27-26 -- if the Jags kick an extra point, we have an outside shot of covering, but since they went for 2 we're essentially dead either way. Jacksonville converted the 2 point conversion and went on to win.
Final score: Jacksonville 28, Baltimore 27
Result: LOSS
Tampa Bay @ Cleveland (+3.5)
Line closed: TB -3.5, line remained the same
Jacoby Brissett clearly came into this one extra motivated that he had to play behind Tom Brady in New England, according to a fact that I just made up.
OK, Brissett wasn't that great. But neither was Brady -- both quarterbacks gained 5.7 yards per attempt through the air. Nick Chubb was a force on the ground, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt over 26 carries (116 total yards) and a touchdown. Tampa Bay was leading 17-10 with 2:10 left, but the Browns managed to score a touchdown with 32 seconds left. In this case, we'd love for them to employ the "win it now" attitude and go for 2, but they kicked the extra point instead to take the game into overtime. Overtime is a great spot to be in when you're at +3.5 since any result other than a touchdown for the opposing team wins you the bet, and they aren't always incentivized to score a touchdown.
Overtime went as follows: Tampa punt, Cleveland punt, Tampa punt. Cleveland then finally put together a drive, which they capped off with a Nick Chubb touchdown.
Final score: Cleveland 23, Tampa Bay 17
Result: WIN
Chicago @ NY Jets (-4.5)
Line closed: NYJ -8.5, line moved toward the model
The crazy line movement was due to QB changes -- first with Zach Wilson being benched, which made the Jets bigger favorites (although we felt like this was a distinct possibility when making the bet). Then Justin Fields was ruled out with a shoulder injury. We knew about the shoulder injury, but it was widely reported that he was expected to play. In the pre-game, backup QB Trevor Siemian was injured, and it was reported that Nathan Peterman -- yes, Nathan Peterman, would be the starting QB for the Bears. About 15 minutes before kickoff it was further reported that Siemian would be able to play. The question of who was going to play the most important position in football was a legit question mark right up until kickoff. In the end, Siemian was able to play, but that couldn't have been easy for the Bears mentally to not know what's going on.
While the pre-game madness was happening, people were losing their mind in the sports betting world:
This is dumb money. Yes, the result worked out, but the Peterman being the starter had already been priced. It's a reminder that it's virtually impossible to beat Vegas on injury news. They're on top of their shit. Besides, why are you betting games at kick off? Get your damn bets in early, folks.
As for the game, the Jets won easily. Mike White forever. Even though he's not good.
Final score: NY Jets 31, Chicago 10
Result: WIN
New Orleans (+9.5) @ San Francisco
Line closed: SF -8.5, line moved toward the model
The Saints held the 49ers offense to 13 points. We had 9.5 on the spread. We still lost.
We had our chances. The Saints had a missed field goal and fumbled at the San Francisco 6. Two field goals would have been enough to cover, but it wasn't our game.
Final score: San Francisco 13, New Orleans 0
Result: LOSS
Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ Indianapolis
Line closed: IND -2.5, line remained the same.
Was there a football game Monday? Says here the Steelers won 24-17. I guess we covered.
Result: WIN
Sides recap: We went 4-3 on the week. A couple things went against us, but the QB situation in the Jets game obviously worked to our favor. We'll take it.
Prop bets
Jared Goff u249.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): Goff had 240 yards passing. WIN +1 unit
Devin Singletary u58.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Singletary finished with 72 yards on 14 carries. LOSS -1.15 units
Amon-Ra St. Brown o7.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): Amon-Ra forever. 9 catches will do it. WIN +1.15 units
Jacoby Brissett o205.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel): Brissett had 210 yards passing. Close one! WIN +1 unit
Tom Brady o261.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel): TB12 let us down, passing for just 246 yards. LOSS -1.1 units
Rachaad White u67.6 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): White finished with 64 yards. WIN +1 unit
Julio Jones o28.5 receiving yards -105 (FanDuel) Julio had 40 yards receiving. WIN +1 unit
Cordarrelle Patterson u49.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM): Never bet against Patterson. He finished with 52 yards. LOSS -1.1 units
Darnell Mooney u50.5 receiving yards -115 (PointBet): Mooney got injured. He ran 10 routes out 28 dropbacks and was not targeted. WIN +1 unit
Tyreek Hill o7.5 receptions +123 (Caeasar): Hill had 6 catches for 85 yards. Not good enough. LOSS -1 unit
Jaylen Waddle o5.5 receptions +124 (FanDuel): Waddle had 5 catches for 85 yards. Also not good enough. LOSS -1 unit
Justin Herbert u280.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Herbert had 274 yards passing. WIN +1 unit
Najee Harris u62.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): We lucked out on another injury. Harris finished with 35 yards. WIN +1 unit
Prop results: 8-5, +2.8 units
Previous recaps:
Week 1: Lines Move Toward the Model
Week 2: Our First Back Door Cover
Week 3: Win by Fading the Giants
Week 4: Lose by Fading the Giants
Week 5: Comeback Starts Next Week
Week 6: The Comeback Did Not Start This Week
Week 7: Monday Night Was No Fun
Week 8: 10.5 is a Lot of Fucking Points
Week 9: Clean Sweep
Week 10 Recap: An Ugly Week Puts us Back at .500
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Week 11: 1-6
Week 12: 4-3
Season total: 35-39-1
Props record:
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Week 11: 6-6, -0.78
Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units
Season total: 63-64, -5.57 units