Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
For the 2nd time in 3 weeks, the model spit out a strength of 3 on any bets, which is typically the minimum strength required for us to recommend a bet. This is a process that is being reevaluated by Dom, and we believe we'll be recommending a lot more bets later in the season. As always, our process is data driven. More to come. For this week, it was props only.
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- We had some luck and bad luck on drops. Pringle had a brutal drop near the line of scrimmage with nobody around him that would have lost us the bet. Likewise, Dawson Knox had 2 catches on 6 targets, including a drop. However, Ja'Marr Chase also had a drop on a pass where he was behind the defense. That likely would have resulted in a touchdown and easily put us over, but instead ended up turning into an interception. Football is a wild game.
- The Jalen Hurts bet cancelled because he was ruled out with an ankle injury. Backup Gardner Minshew ended up throwing for 2 TDs. They were playing the Jets, after all.
- I've never been more wrong in my life than I was on Mac Jones. I took his over as the crowd started hammering under lines after seeing how bad the weather was in Buffalo. The public notoriously overreacts to weather and it's often the right call to fade that, but that was not the case Monday Night. Jones attempted 3 passes the entire game.
- Touchdown Tommy threw 4 TDs. Nick Vannett caught a 12 yards pass on the 2nd play of the game. Gabriel Davis ended up with 30 yards, even in the tough weather.
- I'm happy with the result on Matt Ryan not throwing a TD getting +140. I'm more so happy with the process -- if you follow the numbers, it was clear Ryan was due for INT regression. Explained here.
Units are calculated as follows: each prop has a 1 unit wager on it. If the wager has dog odds (i.e., the line column has a positive number), then we're risking 1 unit to win the line divided by 100. If the wager is a favorite (i.e., the line column has a negative number), we're risking the line divided by 100 to win 1 unit. Whatever a "unit," is for you, multiply that by 4.23, and that's how much you would have won tailing these bets. If you're interested in getting into the prop game, always check this site so you can easily compare lines across multiple books to get the best price.
Sides recommendations:
Week 1: Jameis Preserves the Even Week (2-2, even)
Week 2: Thanks for Fumbling, Clyde (3-1, +4 units)
Week 3: We Lost Every Bet (0-2, -4 units)
Week 4: Monday Night Fucked Us (2-1, even)
Week 5: It's Raining On First And Thirty (0-2, -2 units)
Week 6: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game (0-1, -1 unit)
Week 7: Houston Sucks, Apparently (1-1, +1 unit)
Week 8: When the Dogs Win Outright (2-1, +3 units)
Week 9: Both Dogs Won Outright, Again (2-0, +3 units)
Week 10: Props Only (0-0, even)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (1-2, lost 2 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (0-4, lost 6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (0-0, even)
Season total: 13-17, -4 units
Props recommendations:
Week 10: Props Only (10-4, +8.02 units)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, lost 3.74 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (4-11, lost 7.6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (7-4, won 4.23 units)
Season total: 26-27, +0.91 units