Week 14: Prop Bets

· Brady,Week 14 2022,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, which tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Sunday 1PM Slate

Jared Goff u274.5 passing yards -110 (BetMGM)

Davis Mills o185.5 passing yards -120 (PointBet)

Zeke Elliot u67.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM)

Zonovan Knight u40.5 rushing yards -110 (PointBet)

Isaiah McKenzie u30.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM)

Garrett Wilson o5.5 receptions +124 (FanDuel)

Ja'Marr Chase o6.5 receptions +110 (BetMGM)

Diontae Johnson u4.5 receptions +126 (Caesars)

Sunday 4PM Slate

Tom Brady o250.5 passing yards -110 (FanDuel)
Julio Jones o18.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM)

D'Onta Foreman u63.5 rushing yards -108 (Caesars) 

Jerry Jeudy u60.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel) 

Sunday Night Football

Tua Tagovailoa u290.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet)