Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
San Francisco @ Arizona (+12.5)
Line closed: SF -11.0, line moved toward the model
The Cardinals offensive line held up well considering the monstrous task of defending against the 49ers pass rush. Kyler Murry was under pressure on just 24.4% of dropbacks, an impressive number considering he averaged 3.15 seconds to throw. However, Murray didn't do squat with his clean pocket, averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt and committing 4 turnover-worthy plays. The Cardinals defense predictably imploded, allowing 9.4 yards per attempt through the air and 5.5 yards per attempt on the ground. In the end, Arizona was able to run away with it and cover.
Final score: San Francisco 45, Arizona 29
Result: LOSS
Washington @ LA Rams (-6.5)
Line closed: LAR -6.5, line stayed the same
The Rams were the better team by a wide margin. Matt Stafford earned a 90.4 PFF game grade while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and completing 75.8% of his passes. Kyren Williams averaged 5.6 yards per attempt on an absurd 27 attempts (152 yards total, we'll ignore the 2 fumbles). Cooper Kupp went for 111 yards on 8 catches.
Things started to get a little dicey toward the end - the Rams were up 28-7 with 9:05 to go in the 4th, but a missed 43 yard field goal gave the Commanders excellent field position, which they turned into a touchdown 5 plays and 67 yards later. After a kick 3 and out, Washington marched down the field again. The extra point was blocked, giving the Rams an 8 point lead, and after an unsuccessful onside kick attempt, that's where things ended.
Final score: LA Rams 28, Washington 20
Result: WIN
Dallas (+2.0) @ Buffalo
Line closed: BUF 2.5, line moved away from the model
The Cowboys shit the bed. I have nothing further.
Final score: Buffalo 31, Dallas 10
Result: LOSS
Props recap:
Tommy DeVito o178.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): DeVito missed one series. Tyrod Taylor threw for 13 yards on that one series before DeVito returned. Tommy finished with 177 yards. Brutal. LOSS -1 unit
Bryce Young o169.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Young had 167 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Zach Wilson o178.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Wilson had a concussion. He finished with 26 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Bailey Zappe o188.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Zappe finished with 180 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Jordan Love u250.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Love had 284 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Rachaad White u76.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): White had 89 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Sam Howell u270.5 passing yards -120 (PointBet): Howell finished with 102 yards. WIN +0.83 units
Tony Pollard o53.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): Pollard had 52 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Demarcus Robinson u32.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Robinson had 44 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Deebo Samuel o57.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Samuel had 48 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Keaton Mitchell u46.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Mitchell had 73 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Calvin Ridley o4.5 receptions +116 (FanDuel): Ridley had 5 catches. WIN +1.16 units
Jalen Hurts u252.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Hurts finished with 143 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Final tally: 3-10, -7.10 units. My worst week by a mile, my previous worst week being last week where I finished -2.54 units. Two injuries, close calls not going our way. That's the way things go. Trust the process.
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Week 11 Recap: I Hope You Trusted the Fucking Process
Week 12 Recap: No Extra Points In Overtime
Week 13 Recap: Jake Browning Fucks
Week 14 Recap: Monday Madness Decides Our Fate
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Weel 13: 2-3
Week 13: 2-2
Week 14: 2-2
Week 15: 1-2
Total: 27-29
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Week 12: 6-8, -1.99 units
Week 13: 5-6 -1.21 units
Week 14: 5-7, -2.54 units
Week 15: 3-10, -7.10 units
Total: 77-83, -7.13 units