Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
This week we debuted a new strategy that resulted in selecting more games. Dom explained in detail here.
New England (+2) @ Indianapolis
Closing line: NE -2
A blocked punt 6 and a few bad interceptions from Mac Jones put the Patriots in a tough hole. A comeback looked like a slight possibility, but a 67-yard Jonathan Taylor touchdown run sealed it.
Final score: Indy 27, New England 17 (lost 1 unit)
Carolina @ Buffalo (-10.5)
Closing line: BUF -14.5, line shifted toward the model
The Bills took care of business. This game was never close.
Final score: Buffalo 31, Carolina 14 (won 1 unit)
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (+2)
Closing line: PIT -0.5, line shifted toward the model
The turnover battle was the story in this one: the Titans turned the ball over 4 times, all which resulted in Pittsburgh field goals. Though the Titans had a 13-3 lead at the half, Pittsburgh scored 16 unanswered in the 2nd half to win outright.
Final score: Pittsburgh 19, Tennessee 13 (won 1 unit)
Atlanta @ San Francisco (-9)
Closing line: SF -9
The 49ers offense was simply too much for the Falcons. George Kittle continues his hot streak, catching 6 balls for 93 yards. Deebo Samuel rushed for another touchdown and caught 4 balls for 60 yards. Jeff Wilson rushed for 110 yards and a score. FB/God Kyle Juszczyk added another touchdown for the boys.
Final score: San Francisco 31, Atlanta 13 (won 1 unit)
Cincinnati @ Denver (-1.5)
Closing line: DEN -3, line moved toward the model
In what was mostly a defensive stand off, Cincy pulled ahead 15-10 in the 3rd quarter thanks to a 56 yards touchdown pass to Tyler Boyd. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) had to be removed from the game, leaving Drew Locke to attempt a comeback. It went as you would expect.
Final score: Cincy 15, Denver 10 (lost 1 unit)
Green Bay @ Baltimore (+4.5)
Closing line: GB -8.5, line moved away from the model due to Lamar Jackson being ruled out
We green lit this one knowing there was a chance Lamar Jackson wouldn't play, but bumped it down from a 2-unit bet to a 1-unit bet. Backup QB Tyler Huntley hung in strong, throwing for and rushing for a pair of touchdowns. Mark Andrews caught 10 balls for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. Baltimore scored a late touchdown to move within 1, but opted to go for 2 rather than take the extra point and tie the game. The attempt failed, and Green Bay pulled it off.
Final score: Green Bay 31, Baltimore 30 (won 1 unit)
New Orleans (+11) @ Tampa Bay
Closing line: TB -11.5, line moved insignificantly away from the model
The Bucs lost Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette to injury. Even prior to that, they couldn't get anything going on offense. Like, literally nothing. They scored zero points.
Final score: New Orleans 9, Tampa Bay 0 (won 1 unit)
Las Vegas @ Cleveland (-3)
Closing line: LV -2.5, massive shift away from the model due to COVID-19
I wrote in the preview blog that we made a mistake with this one. The model predicted the line perfectly and we didn't adjust properly. Unfortunately, after we recommended the game, Browns QBs Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum were both placed on the COVID-19 list. The Browns hung in strong, but we were never covering 3 points.
Final score: Las Vegas 16, Cleveland 14 (lost 1 unit)
LA Rams (-5.0) @ Seattle
Closing line: LA -7, line moved toward the model
Our other COVID bet fared much better, in part because Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett also had to miss with COVID-19. Cooper Kupp continues to play on another planet, catching 9 balls for 136 yards and 2 TDs.
Final score: LA Rams 20, Seattle 10 (won 1 unit)
Prop bets: A combination of work, the need to preview 9 games, and time management prevented me from doing my normal prop work. I got three recommendations out for TNF, and that was it. One of them was on Donald Parhan o10.5 receiving yards. Parham had a chance at a touchdown early, but landed on his head and ended up with a nasty head injury. Fortunately, it seems like he's going to be ok. I split the other two bets: Jalen Guyton caught 2 passes, failing to go under the 1.5 line I had him on. Tyreek Hill went well over the 77.5 receiving line I had him on, ending the day with 148 yards. The end result was I went 1-2, losing 1.1 units. I'll get more out next week.
Sides recommendations:
Week 1: Jameis Preserves the Even Week (2-2, even)
Week 2: Thanks for Fumbling, Clyde (3-1, +4 units)
Week 3: We Lost Every Bet (0-2, -4 units)
Week 4: Monday Night Fucked Us (2-1, even)
Week 5: It's Raining On First And Thirty (0-2, -2 units)
Week 6: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game (0-1, -1 unit)
Week 7: Houston Sucks, Apparently (1-1, +1 unit)
Week 8: When the Dogs Win Outright (2-1, +3 units)
Week 9: Both Dogs Won Outright, Again (2-0, +3 units)
Week 10: Props Only (0-0, even)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (1-2, lost 2 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (0-4, lost 6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (0-0, even)
Week 14: Success, Finally (2-0, won 2 units)
Week 15: The New Format Comes Out Firing (6-3, won 3 units)
Season total: 21-20, +1 units
Props recommendations:
Week 10: Props Only (10-4, +8.02 units)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, lost 3.74 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (4-11, lost 7.6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (7-4, won 4.23 units)
Week 14: Success, Finally (8-4, won 5.34 units)
Week 15: The New Format Comes Out Firing (1-2, lost 1.1 units)
Season total: 35-33, +5.15 units