Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
2021 sides record: 33-25
2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units
Detroit (-2.5) @ Carolina
Line closed: DET -2, line moved away from the model
The Lions defense was here to make Sam Darnold look good. Darnold went 15/22 (682.%), gained 11.4 yards per attempt, and threw a TD. DJ Moore finished with 5 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. The big issue, however, was the Lions run defense. They gave up an absurd 320 yards on 43 carries, good for 7.4 yards per attempt, and 3 TDs.
Final score: Carolina 37, Detroit 23
Result: LOSS
Seattle (+9.5) @ Kansas City
Line closed: KC -10., line moved away from the model
The Seahawks defense did their job, holding Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs to 24 points should be enough to cover. However, the Seahawks offense was completely stagnant -- Geno Smith averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt, which included an interception. Seattle didn't score their lone touchdown till the 4th quarter.
Final score: Kansas City 24, Seattle 10
Houston @ Tennessee (-5.0)
Line scored: TEN -3.0, line moved away from the model (we were wrong on the Ryan Tannehill injury)
Due to game script, Mike Vrabel actually allowed Malik Willis to throw the ball. It went poorly. He went 14/23 (60.9%), gaining just 4.3 yards per attempt, threw 2 INTs, and had a PFF passing grade of 39.6. Derrick Henry did all he could, gaining 126 yards on 23 carries (5.5 average) and a touchdown, but a run game alone isn't enough.
Final score: Houston 19, Tennessee 14
Result: LOSS
New Orleans @ Cleveland (-2.5)
Line closed: CLE -3.5, line moved toward the model
Deshaun Watson, still rusty. He gained just 4.4 yards per attempt and completing 48.4% of his passes against the saddest group of corners I've seen in a long time. Cleveland held a 10-3 lead at the half, but a pair of Saints touchdowns accounted for the only second half scoring.
Final score: New Orleans 17, Cleveland 10
Result: LOSS
Las Vegas (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh
Line closed: PIT -2.5, line moved toward the model
An absolute pathetic display by the Raiders offense, but we managed a push.
Final score: Pittsburgh 13, LA Raiders 10
Result: PUSH
Denver @ LA Rams (+2.5)
Line closed: DEN -3.0, line moved away from the model
Russ Wilson's season is full of so much shit it could clog each and every one of his 12 bathrooms. He threw 3 INTs, which gave the Rams excellent field position. They capitalized, scoring 51 god damn points. This game was an embarrassment, as Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett was subsequently fired.
Final score: LA Rams 51, Denver 14
Result: WIN
Sides result: 1-4-1, ugly. I can't even be that happy with the closing line value.
Prop bets:
Josh Allen o219.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): Allen finished with 172 yards passing. LOSS -1.13 units
Stef Diggs o63.3 receiving yards -113 (FanDuel): Diggs had a rough day, catching just 2 balls for 26 yards. The Bills scored 35 points without a big day from Allen on Diggs. Go figure. LOSS -1.13 units
Andy Dalton o137.5 passing yards -125 (BetMGM): Dalton had 92 yards passing against one of the worst pass defenses in football. LOSS -1.25 units
Deshaun Watson o147.5 passing yards -104 (Caesasrs): Yeah, he's bad. LOSS -1.04 units
Donovan Peoples-Jones o30.5 receiving yards -125 (PointBet): 2 yards receiving for Peoples-Jones. LOSS -1.25 units
Isiah Pacheco u70.5 rushing yards -115 (PointBet): Pacheco had 58 yards. LOSS -1.15 units
Kenneth Walker o45.5 rushing yards -110 (BetMGM): Walker had 107 yards rushing, finally a win. WIN +1 unit
Amon-Ra St. Brown o6.5 receptions -109 (Caesars): Always Amon-Ra. He finished with 7 catches. WIN +1 units
Desmond Ridder o135.5 passing yards -125 (PointBet): Ridder had 218 yards. WIN +1 unit
Zeke Elliot u60.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Zeke had 55 yards. WIN +1 unit
Juan Jennings u2.5 receptions +140 (FanDuel): Jennings had 2 catches. WIN +1.4 units
Derek Carr o217.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings): Derek Carr was benched after this game. LOSS -1.15 units
Christian Watson u54.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings): Watson had 49 yards. WIN +1 unit
Parris Campbell o42.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Cambpell had just 19 yards. LOSS -1.15 units
Props result: 6-8, -2.85 units
Previous recaps:
Week 1: Lines Move Toward the Model
Week 2: Our First Back Door Cover
Week 3: Win by Fading the Giants
Week 4: Lose by Fading the Giants
Week 5: Comeback Starts Next Week
Week 6: The Comeback Did Not Start This Week
Week 7: Monday Night Was No Fun
Week 8: 10.5 is a Lot of Fucking Points
Week 9: Clean Sweep
Week 10: An Ugly Week Puts us Back at .500
Week 11: Ouch Town, Population Us
Week 12: Look At That, We Won
Week 13: Cute Comeback Tom, but It Only Counts If You Cover
Week 14: An Average Week
Week 15: When Final Drives Go Against Us
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Week 11: 1-6
Week 12: 4-3
Week 13: 4-3
Week 14: 4-4
Week 15: 3-4-1
Week 16: 1-4-1
Season total: 47-51-3
Props record:
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Week 11: 6-6, -0.78
Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units
Week 13: 8-3, +5.01 units
Week 14: 8-6, +1.86 units
Week 15: 4-8, -4.7 units
Week 16: 6-8, -2.85 units
Season total: 89-89, -6.25 units