Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
2021 sides record: 33-25
2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units
With essentially breaking even on props and a clean 4-1 record on sides, we'd normally be happy. But our thoughts are with Damar Hamlin and his family first and foremost. If you can, consider donating to his toy drive. I'm writing the recap for record keeping purposes only, as there's more important things going on then football betting right now.
Jacksonville (-4.0) @ Houston
Line closed: Jax -3.5, line moved away from the model
There was some concern about Jacksonville resting starters, but they made it perfectly clear throughout the week that they had no intentions of doing that. The line movement is a bit strange -- it does appear to bake in some uncertainty that Jacksonville wouldn't be playing their best players -- but when it was officially official that the Jags would play their starters, the line didn't move at all. I'll chalk it up to market inefficiency and easy money.
The Jags rolled, grabbing a 21-0 lead at the half and never looking back. They were able to bench their starters, but it was mostly a reflection of the scoreboard then anything else. Trevor Lawrence had a decent game, but the true star was the run game, which collectively gained 169 yards on 29 carries (5.8 average) and 3 TDs. On defense, Josh Allen had 9 pressures and 4 stops in the run game. A straight up absurd effort from the 4th year edge rusher.
Final score: Jacksonville 31, Houston 3
Result: WIN
Chicago @ Detroit (-6.0)
Line closed: DET -4.5, line moved away from the model
The high powered Lions offense had no issues gaining yards on the Bears league worst defense. The Bears offense had success on the ground, which was also easy to see coming. Justin Fields gained 132 yards on 10 carries (13.2 average). Chicago collectively had 200 yards on 22 carries (9.1 average).
A run game alone isn't enough when you're trying to keep up with the Lions. Justin Fields went 7/21 through the air (33.3%) for 75 yards (3.6 average). This is legit pathetic passing levels against a bad Lions defense.
Final score: Detroit 41, Chicago 10
Result: WIN
NY Jets @ Seattle (+2.0)
Line closed: NYJ -2, line remained the same
The Seahawks pass rush stepped up, pressuring Mike White on 48% of dropbacks. 2020 end year edge rusher Darrell Taylor had the best game of his career, accumulating 8 pressures and 3 sacks. Ponnah Ford and Quinton Jefferson also notched 5 pressures each. On offense, Seattle had some minor success through the air, but they were unstoppable on the ground, collectively gaining 198 yards on 38 carries (5.2 average). with the Jets offense unbale to move the ball, it was a key clock killer.
Final score: Seattle 23, NY Jets 6
Result: WIN
LA Rams (+6.5) @ LA Chargers
Line closed: LAC -6.5, line remained the same
It looked like the Rams may have been able to keep this within cover range, trailing 17-10 at the end of the half. However, there offense went completely stagnant in the 2nd half, scoring a whopping 0 points. The Chargers, meanwhile, had a touchdown in the 3rd and 4th quarter, easily enabling them to pull away.
Final score: LA Chargers 31, LA Rams 10
Result: LOSS
Minnesota @ Green Bay (-3.0)
Line closed: GB -3.0, line remained the same
The Packers appear to have figured a thing or two out offensively. Aaron Rodgers went 15/24 (62.5%) for 159 yards (6.6 YPA) and a touchdown. The ground game went off, collectively gaining 163 yards on 33 carries (4.9 average) and 2 scores. The big story line in this one, however, was CB Jaire Alexander and the Packers defense holding Justin Jefferson to 4 targetse, 1 catch, and 15 yards. With the Packers offense rolling and the Vikings unable to unleash Jefferson, it wasn't even close.
Minnesota remains 11-0 in 1 score games.
Final score: Green Bay 41, Minnesota 17
Result: WIN
Sides recap: We've had a bunch of weeks where we were able to find closing line value, but we still lost. This week we did not identify any closing line value, but I really can't complain about a big week. 4-1 for the week.
Prop Bets:
Jared Goff u280.5 passing yards -120 (PointBet): Goff finished with 255 yards passing. Game script certainly helped us here. WIN +1 unit
Teddy Bridgewater o220.5 passing yards -125 (BetMGM): Teddy Bridgewater got injured and finished with 161 yards. The Dolphins collectively had 247 yards passing, so we certainly would have got there without the injury. LOSS -1.25 units
Justin Fields u76.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): I like the idea of fading Fields's rushing yardage, but this one didn't work out. He had 132 yards on the ground. LOSS -1.14 units
Tyler Allgeier u75.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): Allgeier had 83 yards rushing. LOSS -1.15 units
Saquon Barkley u80.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Barkley finished with 58 yards rushing. WIN +1 unit
Miles Sanders u80.5 rushing yards -115 (PointBet): Sanders had 61 yards rushing. WIN +1 unit
David Montgomery u60.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): Justin Fields took all the Bears rushing yards. Montgomery finished with 24 yards. WIN +1 unit
Jerrick McKinnon u33.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): McKinnon had 52 yards receiving. LOSS -1.15 units.
Amon-Ra. St Brown u85.5 receiving yards -115 (PointBet): ARSB finished with 62 yards receiving. WIN +1 unit
Rachaad White u2.5 receptions +126 (FanDuel): White had 5 receptions. LOSS -1 unit
Mike Evans o4.5 receptions +110 (DraftKings): Mike Evans had an absurd day, catching 10 balls for 207 yards and 3 TDs. WIN +1.1 units
JuJu Smith-Schuster o5.5 receptions +118 (FanDuel): JuJu had just 2 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Jarrett Stidham o195.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Stidham had a decent 1st start, I guess. He threw for 365 yards and gained 10.7 YPA. WIN +1 unit
Justin Herbert u285.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings): Herbert was benched when the score got out of hand, but the Chargers were still collectively under his, gaining 239 yards through the air. Herbert had 212 yards. WIN +1 unit
Justin Jefferson o7.5 receptions +130 (FanDuel): Jefferson was almost shut out, catching 1 pass. LOSS -1 unit
Kenny Pickett o190.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Pickett had 168 yards through the air. LOSS -1.15
Josh Allen u48.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Gambling is the last thing one your mind after watching this one, but we do have to get to the results. I'm not aware of a single book that wouldn't cancel this bet. Usually the game must be played within a week for it to count.
Props result: 8-8, -0.74 units
Previous recaps:
Week 1: Lines Move Toward the Model
Week 2: Our First Back Door Cover
Week 3: Win by Fading the Giants
Week 4: Lose by Fading the Giants
Week 5: Comeback Starts Next Week
Week 6: The Comeback Did Not Start This Week
Week 7: Monday Night Was No Fun
Week 8: 10.5 is a Lot of Fucking Points
Week 9: Clean Sweep
Week 10: An Ugly Week Puts us Back at .500
Week 11: Ouch Town, Population Us
Week 12: Look At That, We Won
Week 13: Cute Comeback Tom, but It Only Counts If You Cover
Week 14: An Average Week
Week 15: When Final Drives Go Against Us
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Week 9: 7-0
Week 10: 2-4
Week 11: 1-6
Week 12: 4-3
Week 13: 4-3
Week 14: 4-4
Week 15: 3-4-1
Week 16: 1-4-1
Week 17: 4-1
Season total: 51-52-3
Props record:
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Week 9: 4-6, -2.4 units
Week 10: 3-8 -5.63 units
Week 11: 6-6, -0.78
Week 12: 8-5, +2.8 units
Week 13: 8-3, +5.01 units
Week 14: 8-6, +1.86 units
Week 15: 4-8, -4.7 units
Week 16: 6-8, -2.85 units
Season total: 97-97, -6.99 units