Welcome to the clusterfuck that is betting on week 18. The final week of the season always presents a unique challenge in figuring out which teams are going to give a shit and which teams aren't.
Let's first review the teams that won't be giving a shit:
1. Kansas City Chiefs - KC is locked into the 1 seed in the AFC. As you may have noticed, Kansas City has been in this position before, and they always rest starters.
2. Buffalo Bills - The Bills are locked into the 2 seed in the AFC. In week 16, they were 14 point favorites against New England. This week they have New England again and are only 3 point favorites.
3. Philadelphia Eagles - Philly is locked into the 2 seed. They are 3 point favorites against the Giants.
4. Los Angeles Rams - the Rams are locked into the 3 seed. Sean McVay is one of the leading proponents of resting starters - both in the preseason and when they've been in similar spots in years past.
Here are a few teams where we aren't quite sure if they'll give a shit or not:
1. Houston Texans - the Texans clinched the AFC South and will finish as the 4 seed. HC Demeco Ryans was asked directly about resting starters, stating, “Everybody has to be ready to go, and that’s where we are. Everyone will be out there playing and we’ll see how the game goes.” Thanks for telling us nothing, Demeco. It's worth noting that the Texans are coming off back to back loses - Ryans could feel getting a win before the playoffs is important. They opened as 3 point favorites to Tennessee and are down to -1, implying that they may not play starters the full way.
2. Baltimore Ravens - currently the 3 seed, the Ravens clinched a playoff berth but have NOT clinched the AFC North. They could be overtaken by the Steelers, but Baltimore is currently 17.5 point favorites (you read that right) against Dorain Thompson-Robinson and the Browns.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers - Currently the 4 seed, PIT has clinched a playoff berth and can theoretically move to the 3 seed, but it would require a Baltimore loss (see above), and since Baltimore has the first game of the week, they'll know if this is a scenario before their game starts. They're currently 1.5 point home dogs to Cincy, suggesting that Vegas isn't feeling too confident that they're playing starters for the entire game.
4. LA Chargers - The Chargers clinched a playoff berth and is currently the 5 seed. If Pittsburgh loses, they can move to 4, which would avoid Baltimore (most likely). That could provide some extra motivation. The Chargers are currently 5.5 point favorites against the Raiders.
5. Washington Commanders - clinched a playoff berth and will be either the 6 or 7 seed. HC Dan Quinn said they will "play to win," but there isn't a ton of motivation - they'll have either Philly (if they finish at 7) or the Rams (if they finish at 6). They're currently 4.5 point road favorites to Dallas.
6. Green Bay Packers - they're in the exact same boat as Washington. They're currently 9 point favorites against Chicago.
I expect all other teams to treat this week as a normal week.
Here's the current playoff picture:
AFC:
1. KC - locked
2. BUF - locked
3. BAL - 3 seed is clinched with a win vs Browns OR if PIT loses to CIN. Currently -17.5 vs CLE.
4. HOU - locked
5. PIT - Can move to 3 seed if they win and Ravens lose (unlikely). However, BAL plays before PIT. They could move to as low as 6 if they lose.
6. LAC - clinched playoff berth. Could move to 5 seed if PIT loses, but PIT plays before LAC. If PIT loses, moving to 5 avoids a first round matchup to BAL.
7. DEN - win against KC backups and in
8. MIA - win against Jets and need DEN to lose to KC backups. Both games are SUN at 4:25
9. CIN - win against PIT and have both MIA and DEN lose. Playing Saturday
NFC:
1. DET - Playing MIN. Winner gets the 1 seed and the NFC North, loser gets the 5.
2. PHI - locked
3. LAR - locked
4. TB - a win against NO OR ATL loss to CAR secures the division and the 4 seed. Have not clinced playoff spot. Both TB/NO and ATL/CAR are at 1.
5. MIN - see above
6. WAS - clinched playoff berth, will either be 6 or 7 seed.
7. GB - clinched playoff berth, will be either 6 or 7 seed.
9. ATL - win and TB loss secures the division and 4 seed.
Everybody else has been eliminated.