Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Dallas @ Washington (+13.5)
Line closed: DAL -13.0, line moved toward the model
Sam Howell had 3 turnover worthy plays, gained just 5.7 yards per attempt, and was sacked 4 times. Naturally, the offensive wasn't doing much under those circumstances.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys offense gained 7.7 yards per attempt through the air and 4.5 on the ground (29 carries for 131 yards). CeeDee Lamb had 13 catches for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns. It was as one sided as it can get.
Final score: Dallas 38, Washington 10
Result: LOSS
Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona
Line closed: SEA -2.5, line moved away from the model
The Seahawks were leading 13-6 at the half, but then opened the seccond half as follows: punt, punt, punt, and punt.
They were lucky that Matt Prater missed a 43 yard field goal, giving them one final shot at a win. 4 plays and 67 yards later, Seattle scored their first points of the second half - a 34 yard pass to Tyler Lockett with 1:54 on the clock. After a successful 2 point conversion attempt and a failed Arizona final drive, Seattle won the game. But we lost.
Final score: Seattle 21, Arizona 20
Result: LOSS
Buffalo @ Miami (+3.0)
Line closed: BUF -2.5, line moved toward the model
Miami was doing well most of the game, leading 14-7 at the half. When watching the game, I felt Buffalo was outplaying Miami, but the Dolphins stayed ahead thanks to two Josh Allen interceptions. One of those interceptions came from the Miami 35 on 4th and 2. Safety DeShon Elliott intercepted the pass in the end zone and had to settle for a touchback. It's 4th down, just bat the pass, dude.
Anyway, with 13:42 left in the 4th with Miami still leading by 7, Bills wide receiver/return specialist Deonte Harty took a Jake Bailey punt 96 yards for a touchdown, tying the game at 14. After a Miami punt, Josh Allen led the Bills on an 8 play, 74 yard drive that ended with a Dawson Knox touchdown reception to put the Bills up 7, which is where things ended.
Final score: Buffalo 21, Miami 14
Result: LOSS
ATS recap: 0-3. We can't even be too thrilled with the line movement given the Seattle game, although I was happy to get the Dolphins at +3 when the line closed at 2.5.
Prop bets:
Unfortunatley, the Huntley/Rudolph props were doomed due to some brutal weather in the 1st half of the Steelers/Ravens game.
Tyler Huntley o163.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Huntley had 146 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Mason Rudolph o188.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Rudolph had 152 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Michael Pittman u79.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Pittman had 44 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Jared Goff o215.5 passing yards +100 (Caesars): Goff had 320 yards. WIN +1 unit
Chigoziem Okonkwo u39.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Okonkwo had 36 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Jordan Love u254.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Love had 316 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Justin Fields u55.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Fields ran for 27 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Zach Charbonnet u26.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Charbonnet had 32 yards rushing. LOSS -1 unit
DK Metcalf o5.5 receptions +136 (Caesars): Metcalf caught 1 ball. LOSS -1 unit
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Week 11 Recap: I Hope You Trusted the Fucking Process
Week 12 Recap: No Extra Points In Overtime
Week 13 Recap: Jake Browning Fucks
Week 14 Recap: Monday Madness Decides Our Fate
Week 15 Recap: The Cowboys Sucked
Week 16 Recap: The Raiders Defense Sneaky Doesn't Suck
Week 17 Recap: One Win, One Loss, One Push
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Weel 12: 2-3
Week 13: 2-2
Week 14: 2-2
Week 15: 1-2
Week 16: 3-3
Week 17: 1-1-1
Week 18: 0-3
Total: 31-36-1
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Week 12: 6-8, -1.99 units
Week 13: 5-6 -1.21 units
Week 14: 5-7, -2.54 units
Week 15: 3-10, -7.10 units
Week 16: 5-4, +0.66 units
Week 17: 5-7, -2.42 units
Week 18: 4-5, -1.27 units
Total: 91-99, -10.17 units