Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size. I'm also going to be reviewing what the lines closed at and compare that to where we bet them. We typically bet games on Tuesday, and have stressed over the years how important it is to get your damn bets in early. Dom and I have both noticed that lines tend to move toward the model, meaning we're grabbing value early in the week that is no longer available as the market wises up. I think it'll be fun to actually track that, if nothing else to see if Dom and I are full of shit.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
Cincinnati @ NY Jets (+5.0)
Line closed: CIN -6.5, line moved away from the model
The Bengals bounced back for a convincing win over the Jets. The Jets couldn't get anything going on offense and couldn't stop the Bengals receivers (Tyler Boyd 5/105/1, Tee Higgins 7/93, J'Marr Chase 6/29/1). LT George Fant got brutalized by Trey Hendrickson, got hurt, then his back up, Connor McDermott, had the same results against Hendrickson. Hendrickson ended up with 8 pressures and 3 sacks while winning 32.3% of his reps (PFF).
Final score: Cincinnati 27, NY Jets 12
Result: LOSS
Houston (+2.5) @ Chicago
Line closed: CHI -3, line moved away from the model
Houston kept the game close, but Chicago was easily the better team -- earning a DVOA of 32.2% to Houston's -19.2%. The Texans had no answer for RB Khalil Herbert, who came in for an injured David Montgomery (knee/ankle) to rush for 157 yards on 20 carries (7.9 average) and 2 TDs. They were able to get consistent pressure on Justin Fields, who was under pressure on 48% of dropbacks, but couldn't get anything going offensively. Brandin Cooks had a disappointing day, catching just 2 passes for 22 yards on 6 targets, which included a drop.
Final score: Chicago 23, Houston 20
Result: LOSS
New Orleans (-3.0) @ Carolina
Line closed: NO -2.0, line moved away from the model
What if I told you Baker Mayfield would earn a 46.5 PFF grade while completing 48% of his passes, DJ Moore would be held to 2 yards receiving, and Saints rookie Chris Olave would haul in 9 catches for 147 yards? What if I then told you the Panthers would win 22-14? Yeah, not pretty.
Jameis Winston had a game that only he is only capable of having. He constantly pushed the ball down the field (aDOT of 13.1), threw 2 interceptions, and fumbled twice. On defense, the Saints couldn't stop Christian McCaffrey on the ground, who had 108 yards on 25 carries (4.3 average).
Final score: Carolina 22, New Orleans 14
Result: LOSS
Detroit (+6.0) @ Minnesota
Line closed: MIN -6.5, line moved away from the model
We managed to salvage a single win in the 1 o'clock slate, but the good results were coming our way. The Lions looked like they had a shot to win this one outright -- leading 24-14 in the 4th quarter. Detroit then proceeded to give up two touchdowns, turn the ball over on downs, miss a field goal, and throw a pick, successfully blowing their lead. However, we had more than enough to cover.
Final score: Minnesota 28, Detroit 24
Result: WIN
Atlanta (+2.0) @ Seattle
Line closed: SEA -1, line moved toward the model
Cordarelle Patterson had 141 yards on 17 carries (8.3 average), Kyle Pitts had 5 catches for 87 yards, and Grady Jarrett totaled 4 pressures. It was more than enough to beat the Seahawks, led by Geno Smith and his 4 turnover worthy throws.
Final score: Atlanta 27, Seattle 24
Result: WIN
San Francisco @ Denver (+1.5)
Line closed: SF -1.5, line stayed the same
I'll admit that I fell asleep during this game. Once I woke back up, I was so bad at how shitty the game was that I couldn't fall back asleep. San Francisco had a DVOA of 0.4% and it wasn't even the worst DVOA in this game.
Jimmy Garoppolo had two turnover worthy plays, a fumble, and a Dan Orlovsky impression that led to a safety.
OK, Jimmy's wasn't nearly as bad as Dan O's, but we needed some form of entertainment.
Jeff Wilson fumbled, Russ Wilson averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, the Broncos receivers dropped 4 passes, and Jerry Jeudy had 17 receiving yards despite 6 targets. We won the bet, but at what cost?
Ok: one positive: Broncos LB Josey Jewell played for the first time since week 2 of last year. He was on for 53/56 snaps and had 3 pressures, a sack, and 3 run stops.
Final score: Denver 11, San Francisco 10
Result: WIN
Dallas (+2.5) @ NY Giants
Line closed: NYG -1.5, line moved toward the model
Dallas is a better team getting points. Thanks for the free money.
The story in this one was the Cowboys pass rush completely overwhelming the Giants offensive line. It wasn't a surprise at all, but the numbers were staggering. Danny Dimes was under pressure on 55.1% of dropbacks. Demarcus Lawrence had 7 pressures and Micah Parsons had 6. The Giants offensive line, as usual, was bad (except for Andrew Thomas, as usual), but Danny isn't totally innocent here either -- his average time to throw of 3.37 seconds was certainly a factor. It took the Cowboys offense some time to get going -- which included a horrible drop from CeeDee Lamb that negated a long gain (and potentially a touchdown) -- but once they got rolling it was pretty clear the Giants weren't going to be able to keep pace.
Final score: Dallas 23, NY Giants 16
Result: WIN
Sides recap: 4-3 on the week is a fine result, but it's a bit disappointing to see 4 lines move away from the model. It's certainly bound to happen (we didn't have any such games in either weeks 1 or 2), but I like to see more closing line value.
Prop bets:
Justin Fields o169.5 passing yards -103 (Caesars): Fields threw for just 106 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Mack Hollins u2.5 receptions +135 (BetMGM): File this under VERY wrong. With Hunter Renfrow out, Hollins caught 8 balls for 158 yards and a touchdown. LOSS -1 units.
Jared Goff u251.5 passing yards -108 (BetMGM): Goff threw for 277 yards. That asshole. LOSS -1.08 units
JuJu Smith-Schuster u4.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): Kansas City lost to the Colts, but JuJu caught 5 balls to lead the team. LOSS -1 units
Shi Smith o10.5 receiving yards -125 (PointBet): Finally, a win. Smith had 22 receiving yards. WIN +1 unit
Tyler Allgeier u33.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): Allgeier had 25 yards on 6 carries. WIN +1 unit
Joe Flacco u0.5 interceptions +115 (DraftKings): Flacco threw 2 picks, and he was lucky to only have 2. PFF charted him with 6 turnover worthy plays. LOSS -1 unit
Cooper Kupp o8.5 receptions +105 (BetMGM): Apparently, Cooper Kupp is human. He had just 4 catches. LOSS -1 unit.
Deebo Samuel u4.5 receptions +120 (FanDuel): I hate betting against Deebo. He made me pay (literally) again with 5 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Cooper Rush o205.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): Cooper Rush can always be counted on for a win. He threw for 215 yards. WIN +1 unit
Final total: 3-7 lost 4.08 units
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Season total: 10-8
Props record:
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Season total: 15-14, +0.87 units