Week 6 Prop Bets

· Brady,Week 6 2024,Prop Bets

The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.

When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.

Sunday 1PM Slate
Will Levis o192.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel)
CJ Stroud o235.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel)
Trey McBride u51.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)
Jerry Jeudy u42.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365)
Rashid Shaheed o36.5 receiving yards -120 (BetMGM)

Sunday 4PM Slate
Aidan O'Connell o183.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM)
Rico Dowdle o42.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings)
Jameson Williams o43.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel)

Sunday Night Football
Joe Burrow u266.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365)
Zack Moss u46.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365)
Wan'Dale Robinson u56.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)