Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
The final 2021 recap can be read here, which includes links to all other recaps.
2021 sides record: 33-25
2021 prop bets record: 72-65, +14.41 units
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay (+1.5)
Line closed: TB -2.0, line moved heavily toward the model. Betting a team as underdogs to have them close as favorites is a ton of closing line value.
Shortly after failing to cover the spread, Gisele Bündchen and Tom Brady ended their marriage. I do not see this as a coincidence.
The Bucs's defense allowed just 3 points in the 1st half, allowing them to jump out to a 10-3 lead. In the second half they failed to stop Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense on a single drive. That's a bold strategy if you plan on winning the football game.
The Ravens lost Mark Andrews (shoulder) in the 2nd quarter, but rookie TE Isaiah Likely stepped up to grab 6 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown (anyone who makes an "unlikely hero" joke here, just know that I hate you). On the ground, Baltimore gained 231 yards on 31 total attempts (7.5 average). Meanwhile, Tom Brady struggled, completing just 59.1% of his passes, despite being under pressure just 25% of the time. In the end, it wasn't nearly to keep up with the Ravens second half surge.
Final score: Baltimore 27, Tampa Bay 22
Result: LOSS
Arizona @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Line closed: MIN -4.0, line moved slightly toward the model.
We finally got some redemption fading the Cardinals. Predictably, Arizona had no answer for Justin Jefferson (6 catches for 98 yards) or Dalvin Cook (20 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown). Meanwhile, Kyler Murray was efficient passing, but struggled with turnovers. PFF charted him with 3 turnover worthy plays -- two interceptions and a fumble. DeAndre Hopkins had 12 catches for 159 yards and a touchdown, but the turnovers made it impossible to keep pace with the Vikings.
Final score: Minnesota 34, Arizona 26
Result: WIN
New England @ NY Jets (+1.5)
Line closed: NE -3.0, line moved away from the model.
The Jets jumped out to a 10-3 lead as the first half was winding down. With 37 seconds left in the half, Mac Jones threw an ugly interception to Michael Carter at the Jets 16, which Carter then took 84 yards for a touchdown. However, a questionable roughing the passer penalty on John Franklin-Myers negated the play completely, instead giving the Patriots a free 13 yards and a first down. They were able to kick a field goal before the clock expired.
It was an absurd play. Even if you accept that roughing the passer call was legit, it happened after Jones made the throw. The result was taking an 84 yard New York gain to a 13 yard New England gain, or a 97 yard swing that took 6 points off the board. Even the worst DPI calls don't have this effect.
The second half was then all New England. Zach Wilson had a decent start to the game, but he looked much more like the Zach Wilson we all know and hate in the 2nd half. He ended with 3 interceptions and only completed 48.8% of his passes. The Patriots offense was able to score on 3 straight drives in the 2nd half, which put the game out of reach. A garbage time touchdown with 1:44 left made the score closer than it should have been.
Final score: New England 22, NY Jets 17
Result: LOSS
Tennessee (-2.5) @ Houston
Line closed: TEN -1, line moved away from the model
The line movement is explained by Ryan Tannehill (illness) being ruled out. Tannehill did injure his ankle last week, but it was clear that wasn't going to stop him from play. The illness was simply bad luck on our part. Luckily it didn't matter.
The Titans clearly don't trust rookie Malik Willis, who was only allowed to pass the ball 10 times. They relied extensively on the run game, pounding the rock 45 times total for 314 yards and 2 touchdowns (7.0 average). Derrick Henry had 32 carries for 219 yards (6.8 average) and 2 scores. The Texans offense, meanwhile, was unable to do a damn thing. They had a field goal on a drive where they lost 13 yards (an interception had given them excellent field position). The only other drive where they scored was a touchdown that happened with 3:46 left in the game.
Final score: Tennessee 17, Houston 10
Result: WIN
San Francisco @ LA Rams (+1.5)
Line closed: LA Rams -1, line moved toward the model. This was another example of betting a dog that closed as a favorite.
The Rams jumped out to a 14-10 lead at the half. They then didn't score another point the result of the game. The 49ers had other ideas, which included scoring touchdowns on 3 straight drives.
Final score: San Francisco 31, LA Rams 14
Result: LOSS
Green Bay @ Buffalo (+10.5)
Line closed: BUF -10.5, line stayed the same
The Bills won comfortably. They were up 24-7 at the half, which ended any question as to the result of the game. But we're betting a 10.5 point underdog, which, last time I checked, is a lot of fucking points.
The Packers offense is mediocre and they're facing an elite Bills defense. But still, Aaron Rodgers is still very good (he finished with an 89.2 PFF grade), and the run game was unstoppable -- Aaron Jones had 143 yards on 20 carries (7.2 average) while AJ Dillon had 54 yards on 11 carries (5.4 average). Their issue wasn't so much efficiency as it was sustaining drives long enough to actually put points on the board. They finally were able to score their second touchdown of the game with 3:33 left. The Bills were also doing their best to help us out, including two Josh Allen 2nd half interceptions and a 10 play, 28 yard drive that took 3:58 off the clock after the Packers started covering.
The Bills still won comfortably, but 10.5 is a lot of fucking points. We covered.
Final score: Buffalo 27, Green Bay 17
Result: WIN
Sides recap: We finished the week 3-3. Elite bettors know that process is more important than results, and our process put us on two dogs that closed as favorites. All in all, I'm happy.
Props:
Mike Evans o65.5 receiving yards -125 (PointBet): Evans finished with 6 catches for 123 yards. WIN +1 unit
Marcus Mariota o159.5 passing yards -128 (FanDuel): This game turned into a slug fest. The overs were all easy hits. Mariota had 253 yards passing. WIN +1 unit
PJ Walker o184.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): Walker had 317 yards passing. WIN +1 unit
Justin Jefferson o7.5 receptions +115 (BetMGM): I was back and forth on Jefferson's yardage or reception over. In the end I went with receptions as I felt the odds were better. Yardage hit, receptions didn't. He had 6 catches for 98 yards. LOSS -1 unit
DeAndre Hopkins o6.5 receptions +114 (Caesars): Hopkins had 12 catches for 159 yards. That will due. WIN +1.14 units
Caleb Huntley u40.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): Huntley had a terrific game, even out-carrying Tyler Allgeier 16-14. He finished with 91 yards. LOSS -1.2 units
Malik Willis o152.5 passing yards -117 (Caeasars): Haha, no. Willis went 6/10 for 55 yards. LOSS -1.17 units.
Darrel Henderson o35.5 rushing yards +100 (PointBet): Ronnie fucking Rivers, an undrafted rookie out of Fresno State, out-carried Henderson 8-4. Henderson finished with 16 yards. LOSS -1 unit.
Chris Moore u32.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): Chris Moore ran a route on 26 of 36 dropbacks. He wasn't targeted once. WIN +1 unit
Sammy Watkins u3.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): In a "revenge game" against the Bills, Watkins caught 1 pass for 3 yards. WIN +1.2 units
Hayden Hurst u38.5 receiving yards -113 (Caesars): Hurst finished with 42 yards. A 21 yard catch in the 2nd quarter really hurt. LOSS -1.13 units
Props recap: 6-5 +0.84 units
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 3-5
Week 5: 2-3-1
Week 6: 1-4
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-3
Season total: 21-26-1
Props record:
Week 1: 6-3, +3.25 units
Week 2: 6-4, +1.7 units
Week 3: 3-7, -4.08 units
Week 4: 5-7 -2.56 units
Week 5: 4-6, -2.09 units
Week 6: 6-4, +2.41 units
Week 7: 6-5, +0.97 units
Week 8: 6-5 +0.84 units
Season total: 42-41, +0.44 units