Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Buffalo (+2.5) @ Cincinnati
Line closed: Cincy -1.5, line moved toward the model
Give credit where credit is due, Joe Burrow balled out. The Bills defensive line did their job, putting pressure on Burrow during 37% of dropbacks. When under pressure, Burrow was 10/16 (62.5%) for 178 yards (7.8) average for a touchdown. I'm sure most of you aren't nerds like me who routinely check how a quarterback does under pressure, but those numbers are flat out insane. There are several quarterbacks who did not perform that well from a clean pocket. On top of that, Bills TE Dalton Kincaid had a costly fumble and Josh Allen threw an ugly interception. Simply put, Cincy was the better team.
The Kincaid fumble, which the Bengals recovered, happened right at the end of the third quarter. That gave the Bengals the ball back while up 21-10, and they then proceeded to drive 85 yards, chewing up 5:10 of game clock and securing a field goal that put them up 2 touchdowns.
Buffalo then got the ball back with 8:08 to go. They were able to orchestrate a 12 play, 75 yard drive that resulted in a touchdown (and successful two point conversion), but it chewed up 4:36 of game clock. Buffalo was routinely letting the play clock run down far longer than they should have, failing to understand the urgency of the situation. When the Bengals got the ensuing kickoff, there was just 3:32 left in the game. Buffalo never saw the ball again.
Final score: Cincy 24, Buffalo 18
LA Chargers @ NY Jets (+3.0)
Line closed: LAC -3.5, line moved away from the model
I can sum this one up quickly: The Jets gave up a punt return for a touchdown and the Wilson's collectively fumbled 4 times (Zach 3, Garrett 1), losing 3 of them. In addition to Zach Wilson's 3 fumbles, he was sacked 8 times. You cannot win in the National Football League under these circumstances.
The Jets defense does deserve credit - they held Justin Herbert to 4.5 yards per attempt passing and a 53.3% completion percentage. Solid coverage forced Herbert to hold onto the ball longer than he wanted to - he averaged 3.09 seconds to throw, which is far slower than his season average of 2.72, and the Jets were able to routinely put him under pressure. Herbert was under pressure on an absurd 59.5% of dropbacks, which resulted in 5 sacks. Jermaine Johnson had 9 pressures and a sack, John Franklin-Meyers had 8 pressures and a sack, Bryce Huff had 7 pressures, and Quinnen Williams had 6. It was a fantastic defensive effort. The Chargers also fumbled 3 times, but they recovered all 3 (reminder: fumble recovery is pure luck).
Final score: LA Chargers 27, NY Jets 6
Result: LOSS
Spread recap: We are on a brutal cooler, having lost 6 in a row. If a bettor is 50% ATS, they're expected to lose 6 in a row 1.5625% of the time. It's just downright cruel.
Props recap:
Isiah Pacheco u21.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Sometimes I bet on an under and the receiver totals 0 yards. This is one of those times. WIN +0.91 units
Jaren Hall o185.5 passing yards -110 (PointBet): Other times I bet on a QB's over and he gets injured. For whatever it's worth, Hall and Josh Dobbs combined for 217 yards. Hall finished with 78. LOSS -1 unit
CJ Stroud u245.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Sometimes I bet an under and that guy has a career day. Stroud had 470 yards. Ooops. LOSS -1 unit
Jerome Ford o42.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Ford had 44 yards. We'll take it! WIN +0.91 units
Kenneth Walker o52.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Walker had 16 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Michael Thomas u52.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Remember when I said I'll occasionally take an under and a receiver will get zero yards? It happened again. WIN +0.91 units
Jordan Addison o44.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Addison had 52 yards. WIN +0.91 units.
Trey McBride u42.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): McBride had 22 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Chris Olave u4.5 receptions +140 (DraftKings): Olave caught 6 balls. LOSS -1 unit
AJ Brown o6.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings): AJB caught 7 balls. WIN +1.2 units.
Ja'Marr Chase o84.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Chase played the entire game, but apparently injured his back. He finished with 41 yards. LOSS -1 unit.
Zach Wilson u0.5 interceptions +120 (DraftKings): From a game script perspective, this the exact opposite of what we wanted. The Jets dug themselves in a hole and that forced them to throw a lot. Wilson ended up dropping back 58 times, but he did not throw a single interception. WIN +1.2 units
Props total: 7-5, +1.95 units
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Total: 15-17
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Total: 48-41, +7.6 units