Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, I do feel it's important to have an easy place to track all our bets, where we can easily see how we're performing over a larger sample size.
This was a brutal week for the boys. We were on the wrong side of 2 blow outs and went 0-3 on spread bets. The results were a lot better on props, we went 7-4 and collected 3.6 units. Due to the tough start, I had some questions about if the playoffs were harder to win. The answer is an unequivocal "no." We had plenty of tough weeks like this throughout the regular season (trust me, I remember). It's called variance, and it happens. I saw a lot of people on twitter overreacting to a number of different things -- the most common that the advanced analytics were "wrong" on the Patriots. That's a discussion that's worth an entire blog post, but please, don't get suckered into overreactions from one game or one week. You'll be a better gambler for it.
Las Vegas (+6.5) @ Cincinnati
Line closed: CIN -6, moved slightly toward the model
The first bet of the weekend was the only one where we stood a chance. The Bengals pulled ahead to a 7 point lead at the half and were unfortunately able to hold on. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase both played well, the latter finishing with 9 catches for 116 yards. Derek Carr had a fine game, but he was clearly playing second fiddle to Burrow. As we all predicted, Maxx Crosby did end up eating Isaiah Prince's lunch, pressuring Burrow 7 times and grabbing a sack. It just simply wasn't enough. In the end, the Raiders had a chance to score a touchdown to tie things up, but a Derek Carr interception ending things. We failed to cover by half a point.
Final score: Cincinnati 26, Las Vegas 19 (lost 1 unit)
New England (+4.5) @ Buffalo
Line closed: BUF -4.5, no movement
This was an old fashioned beat down. Buffalo played a perfect game of football -- like, actually perfect. They scored a touchdown or took a knee on every drive. I always felt that Buffalo had the higher ceiling, and if they were going to play at that level the Patriots would never be able to keep up. Variance is a bitch, and unfortunately when one team bring their A+ game and the other team doesn't show, this is what happens.
Final score: Buffalo 47, New England 17 (lost 1 unit)
Philadelphia (+8.5) @ Tampa Bay
Line closed: TB -7, big shift toward the model
The second beat down of the weekend, and yet again we were on the wrong side. By the time half time hit, the Bucs were out to a 27-0 lead. When the 4th quarter began, it was 31-0. The Eagles were able to score 15 garbage time points in the 4th, but don't let the final score confuse you -- this was never a game. Tom Brady went 29/37 with 271 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mike Evans, now fully healthy, caught 9 balls for 177 yards and a touchdown. On the other side, Jalen Hurts threw 2 INTs and DeVonta Smith never got going.
Final score: Tampa Bay 31, Philadelphia 15 (lost 1 unit)
Prop bets (for mobile users, rotate your phone)
- Fournette ended up getting ruled out, so his bet cancelled. Since the health of Fournette was one of the reasons why we were on his under, that at least made me feel better about that process.
- The Jaokbi Meyers and Jalen Hurts wins were essentially game flow driven. The same can probably be said for the Mac Jones and Stef Diggs losses. Such is prop betting life.
- Kyler Murray ran for 6 yards, thank you.
- The Bucs running for 2 touchdowns to start the game was super tilting.
Sides recommendations:
Week 1: Jameis Preserves the Even Week (2-2, even)
Week 2: Thanks for Fumbling, Clyde (3-1, +4 units)
Week 3: We Lost Every Bet (0-2, -4 units)
Week 4: Monday Night Fucked Us (2-1, even)
Week 5: It's Raining On First And Thirty (0-2, -2 units)
Week 6: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game (0-1, -1 unit)
Week 7: Houston Sucks, Apparently (1-1, +1 unit)
Week 8: When the Dogs Win Outright (2-1, +3 units)
Week 9: Both Dogs Won Outright, Again (2-0, +3 units)
Week 10: Props Only (0-0, even)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (1-2, lost 2 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (0-4, lost 6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (0-0, even)
Week 14: Success, Finally (2-0, won 2 units)
Week 15: The New Format Comes Out Firing (6-3, won 3 units)
Week 16: The Perfect Week (4-0, won 4 units)
Week 17: When You Bet the Jets, You Win (Results May Vary) (3-2, won 1 unit)
Week 18: Free Money Fading Baltimore, Again (3-1, won 2 units)
Wildcard: "Super" Wildcard Weekend Can Suck It (0-3, lost 3 units)
Season total: 31-25, +5 units
Props recommendations:
Week 10: Props Only (10-4, +8.02 units)
Week 11: A Wild Sunday Prevents a Winless Week (5-8, lost 3.74 units)
Week 12: Ouchtown, Population Us (4-11, lost 7.6 units)
Week 13: Props Only (7-4, won 4.23 units)
Week 14: Success, Finally (8-4, won 5.34 units)
Week 15: The New Format Comes Out Firing (1-2, lost 1.1 units)
Week 16: The Perfect Week (7-5, won 3.22 units)
Week 17: When You Bet the Jets, You Win (Results May Vary) (7-5, won 2.47 units)
Week 18: Free Money Fading Baltimore, Again (2-8, lost 5.8 units)
Wildcard: "Super" Wildcard Weekend Can Suck It (7-4, won 3.6 units)
Season total: 58-55, +8.64 units