One of our goals at First and Thirty is to present you with a fully transparent process for how we evaluate and recommend wagers.  One of the trickiest parts to modeling the NFL this year has been in evaluating home field advantage. I initially rolled out a model that featured a home field advantage slightly... Continue Reading →

This week I am taking the moneyline on the worst team in the NFL.  I’m betting a team with a lame duck coach, less than 100 points scored, and strong odds to land top pick in the draft will get its first (and, let’s be realistic, probably only) win this Sunday. I have an even... Continue Reading →

We will be applying three quantitative adjustments in Week 6, increasing model accuracy by about 1 point.

A detailed methodology of the model and its history. Artwork: Anila Quayyum Agha. Photography mine

This year, we're doing something a tad different with the model. It's being fed my personal power rankings to help it make decisions on which bets we should make. The idea behind it is mainly for injuries -- for example, if Pat Mahomes is out, the model would typically scream to bet the Chiefs since... Continue Reading →

The NFL season is long gone. Quarantined and bored, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at the 2019 season to see which teams were luckboxing into their 2019 win total, and which teams were unlucky as well.

Just fucking kidding. Do yourself a favor and watch paint dry instead of this sad excuse for a football game. That’s it for now, bitches.

These teams show significant edges over bookmakers for Super Bowl LIV.

A quick look at some teams that could rest their starters in week 17. We need to be careful when betting those teams since the model doesn't factor in motivation.