NFL betting, done brilliantly
We can debate about tenths of percentages on DVOA, exact positioning on power rankings, at the value of playing at home, but at the end of the day our model shows this game to be roughly a pick 'em. +2.5 would be reasonable; +3.5 is too far. Take the points and hoist the jolly roger.
The model didn't find value in either Conference Championship game.
My title is stupid. We'll be betting props. More on that later.
While our domain here at First and Thirty falls squarely on football, we’re casual degenerates much like the rest of you, and casual degenerates don’t have many NFL wagers left to make this season. To give you something to root for this winter, you should bet on each of these NHL teams to claim the... Continue Reading →
Our recommendations for the playoffs are born from similar methodology found elsewhere on this site. Advanced NFL statistics are considered alongside our power rankings and a team’s playoff seed to model their probability of winning Super Bowl 55 (I’ve given up on the roman numerals). While we feel Kansas City stands the best shot of... Continue Reading →
As explained here, week 17 is chaos. As expected, the model spit out some interesting stuff. I wanted to take some time to explain the results, which can be seen here. The essence of machine learning is to feed a model data that the machine can then use to make decisions. Data being the key... Continue Reading →
If you follow us religiously (and damn it, you should) you’ll have noticed our strong preference towards underdogs the past few weeks. Theoretically, the balancing pass we undertook in mid-October should have eliminated any inherent bias the model holds towards favorites or dogs. The model actually evolves, mildly, each week of the season, taking into... Continue Reading →
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager | Sizing |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUN 1:00PM | HOU @ CHI | CHI +1.5 | 1 unit |
| SUN 1:00PM | DEN @ CAR | CAR -3.5 | 1 unit |
| SUN 1:00PM | ARI @ NYG | ARI -2.5 | 2 units |
| SUN 1:00PM | KC @ MIA | MIA +7.0 | 2 units |
| SUN 4:25PM | WAS @ SF | WAS +3.0 | 2 units |
| SUN 4:25PM | ATL @ LAC | ATL -2.5 | 1 unit |
| SNF 8:20PM | PIT @ BUF | PIT +2.5 | 1 unit |
Based on our model's output this week, we don't recommend taking any wagers. Full results for all games are here. We will continue to monitor WAS @ PIT and DAL @ BAL as lines evolve following Wednesday night's game.
| Time | Matchup | Wager | Sizing |
|---|---|---|---|
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager | Sizing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving 12:30PM | HOU @ DET | DET +3.0 | 1 unit |
| Thanksgiving 4:30PM | WAS @ DAL | WAS +3.0 | 1 unit |
| SUN 1:00PM | LAC @ BUF | BUF -5.5 | 1 unit |
| SUN 1:00PM | LV @ ATL | ATL +3.0 | 1 unit |
| SUN 1:00PM | CLE @ JAX | JAX +6.5 | 1 unit |
| SUN 4:00PM | NO @ DEN | NO -6.0 | 2 units |
| SUN 4:25PM | KC @ TB | TB +3.5 | 3 units |
| SNF 8:20PM | CHI @ GB | CHI +8.5 | 1 unit |
Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.
| Time | Matchup | Wager | Sizing |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUN 1:00PM | NE @ HOU | HOU +2.0 | 1 unit |
| SUN 4:25PM | MIA @ DEN | MIA -3.5 | 1 unit |
| SNF 8:20PM | KC @ LV | LV +7.0 | 1 unit |
As of Sunday morning, the consensus line for Minnesota out of Las Vegas has shifted to -7.0; we recommend taking the wager at this price.
