NFL betting, done brilliantly
The day has arrived. It is officially time to make our Super Bowl pick. Depending on the book you checked, the line either opened at a pick em or the Rams as a slight favorite. However, the public immediately hammered the Patriots and the line shifted swiftly to New England -2.5. Our model thinks Vegas had it right at the opening line, and the public is wrong.
Ah, prop bets. These are easily the most fun bets to make. You find yourself rooting for oddities throughout the game, and it just makes watching that much more enjoyable. We at FirstandThirty are a big proponent of being hard core degenerates. With that in mind, I thought I'd share some prop bets I'm looking... Continue Reading →
The super bowl is coming. We'll have the next two weeks to dissect, analyze, and break down one game. With that in mind, I wanted to start with some interesting story lines and what we should be looking for. Injuries:Both teams are remarkably healthy. In fact, neither team had a single player listed on their... Continue Reading →
What a Sunday. What a fucking Sunday. With both games featuring four of the best offenses in the league and both games within a 3 point spread, we knew we had something special in the works. But both games going into OT with both road dogs taking the win? Football is simply the best. From... Continue Reading →
Just a quick blog to state the obvious. As you can see by checking the model page, we don't see any value in betting either spread. The model just went out and called the exact spread for both games. I am still following things closely. The injury page is up to date. In the Super... Continue Reading →
This week was a bit different, since we recommended a wong teaser - the logic behind that is explained here. The recap is used to track progress on how our bets are doing throughout the season. Since it's virtually impossible to count things like moneylines and teasers into a record, we count these bets exclusively... Continue Reading →
The model likes the Colts +1.5 over the Texans in a game that projects to be a showdown between Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson. Both defenses are stout against the run but are generous against the pass. It’s no surprise that this game has the highest total of the weekend.
In addition to an against-the-spread wager on IND +1.5, we recommend a three leg Wong teaser for the model's top teams, resulting in IND +7.5, LAC +8.5, SEA +7.5.
| IND @ HOU | 01/05 4:35 PM |
| Model: | 2.828 |
| Vegas: | -1.5 |
| Differential: | 4.328 |
| Wager: | IND 1.5 |
Ah, the 2018 NFL regular season comes to a close. I took a look back at how we did and continue to track progress.
