NFL betting, done brilliantly
The NFL season is long gone. Quarantined and bored, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at the 2019 season to see which teams were luckboxing into their 2019 win total, and which teams were unlucky as well.
Just fucking kidding. Do yourself a favor and watch paint dry instead of this sad excuse for a football game. That’s it for now, bitches.
These teams show significant edges over bookmakers for Super Bowl LIV.
A quick look at some teams that could rest their starters in week 17. We need to be careful when betting those teams since the model doesn't factor in motivation.
The model loves crap teams. We're betting that the Bengals can keep it within 10 at home against the Patriots. Here's to the Red Rocket doing something, anything, against the stout Patriots defense.
In this sad post, I detail why we aren't recommending any bets this week. There are more teams on bye this week (6) than any other week, and the model just couldn't find value anywhere. Sometimes you just have to watch from the sidelines.
The model wants the massive underdogs this week, and we start things off with the Redskins +16 over the Vikings on Thursday night. Please keep your Kirk Cousins revenge game narratives at home.
Some of my otherwise most ardent supporters recently called out the model for its somewhat nonconventional and seemingly inconsistent attitudes towards the Dolphins of Miami. Last week, the fish traveled to Dallas as 20-something point underdogs and the model instructed us to go wide open throttle. This week, we’ve got Miami at home against LAC... Continue Reading →
Rather than simply posting a table with what might perceived to be made up numbers, I thought it might be helpful to give a high level overview of how the model works. In the simplest terms possible, the model takes a bunch of “predictors” (called independent variables) and works some mathemagical wizardry (called a support... Continue Reading →
