NFL betting, done brilliantly
The day has arrived. It is officially time to make our Super Bowl pick. Depending on the book you checked, the line either opened at a pick em or the Rams as a slight favorite. However, the public immediately hammered the Patriots and the line shifted swiftly to New England -2.5. Our model thinks Vegas had it right at the opening line, and the public is wrong.
This week was a bit different, since we recommended a wong teaser - the logic behind that is explained here. The recap is used to track progress on how our bets are doing throughout the season. Since it's virtually impossible to count things like moneylines and teasers into a record, we count these bets exclusively... Continue Reading →
The model likes the Colts +1.5 over the Texans in a game that projects to be a showdown between Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson. Both defenses are stout against the run but are generous against the pass. It’s no surprise that this game has the highest total of the weekend.
We have a 3 pack of games we are recommending in week 17. I break down the motivation for each team, injuries, matchup, and make fun of Pete Carroll.
The model is yet again favoring the Broncos, this time picking on a Raiders team that is simply bad at football. If you're a Raiders fan, you probably won't enjoy this article. Read it anyway since I need the clicks.
The model likes defenses, apparently. We're rolling with the Bears as 4 point favorites against a 49ers team that is too injured to make a difference.
| HOU @ PHI | 12/23 1:00 PM |
| Model: | 2.796 |
| Vegas: | -2.5 |
| Differential: | 5.296 |
| Wager: | HOU 2.5 |
| CHI @ SF | 12/23 4:05 PM |
| Model: | 10.304 |
| Vegas: | 4 |
| Differential: | 6.304 |
| Wager: | CHI -4.0 |
| DEN @ OAK | 12/24 8:15 PM |
| Model: | 9.355 |
| Vegas: | 2.5 |
| Differential: | 6.855 |
| Wager: | DEN -2.5 |
I'm doing an abbreviated version of this, because it's Saturday morning and nobody is going to read it. Essentially, we dropped the ball. It was a busy week, but we still should have been able to get our recommended bets out earlier. It's another perfect example as to why you need to get your bets... Continue Reading →
The model is back on the Chiefs, and this time we are sneaking under the 7 point hook. I break down how the Ravens offense works with Lamar Jackson (hint: they run the ball a lot) and, once again, marvel at the wonder that is Pat Mahomes.
