NFL betting, done brilliantly
***Update 11/14 8:00AM. We're adding the Saints -5.5, which is still the consensus line. Write up to follow
| BUF @ MIA | 11/7 1:00PM |
| Wager: | BUF -5.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 57.81% |
| Cover Edge: | 10.36% |
| NO @ TB | 11/17 1:00PM |
| Wager | NO -5.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 52.61% |
| Cover Edge: | 0.43% |
| KC @ LAC | 11/18 8:15PM |
| Wager | KC -3.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 51.55% |
| Cover Edge: | -1.58% |
Unfortunately, the only game that the model likes. It gives a slight edge to Washington, but we really can't trust that with Dwayne Haskins under center. If you haven't been paying attention, Haskins is #bad at football.
| NJY @ MIA | 11/3 1:00pm |
| Wager: | NYJ -3.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 57.96% |
| Cover Edge: | 10.66% |
The model also likes the Seahawks over the Falcons, but that game is mostly not available at most books because of the Matt Ryan injury. Recommending it feels disingenuous, so we simply won't.
| WAS @ MIN | 10/24 8:20pm |
| Wager: | WAS +16.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.68% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.48% |
| MIA @ PIT | 10/28 8:15pm |
| Wager | MIA +14.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 55.15% |
| Cover Edge: | 5.29% |
| MIA @ BUF | 10/20 1:00pm |
| Wager | MIA +17.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 60.37% |
| Cover Edge: | 15.25% |
| LAR @ ATL | 10/20 1:00pm |
| Wager: | LAR -3.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 55.38% |
| Cover Edge: | 5.72% |
| NO @ CHI | 10/20 4:25pm |
| Wager: | NO +3.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.70% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.52% |
| LAC @ TEN | 10/20 4:05pm |
| Wager: | LAC +2.0 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.66% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.45% |
| WAS @ MIA | 10/13 1:00pm |
| Wager | WAS -3.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 61.09% |
| Cover Edge: | 16.62% |
| HOU @ KC | 10/13 1:00pm |
| Wager: | KC -5 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.38% |
| Cover Edge: | 1.92% |
| NE @ WAS | 10/6 1:00pm |
| Wager | NE -15.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 56.42% |
| Cover Edge: | 7.72% |
| ARI @ CIN | 10/6 1:00pm |
| Wager: | ARI +3.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 54.54% |
| Cover Edge: | 4.13% |
Just two bets this week, let's make them count.
| LAC @ MIA | 9/29 1:00pm |
| Wager | LAC -17.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 70.82% |
| Cover Edge: | 35.21% |
| DAL @ NOR | 9/29 8:20pm |
| Wager: | DAL -3 |
| Cover Probability: | 56.34% |
| Cover Edge: | 7.55% |
| MIA @ DAL | 9/22 1:00pm |
| Wager | MIA +21 |
| Cover Probability: | 69.72% |
| Cover Edge: | 33.09% |
| NYJ @ NE | 9/22 1:00pm |
| Wager: | NYJ +22.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 60.18% |
| Cover Edge: | 14.88% |
| BAL @ KC | 9/22 1:00pm |
| Wager: | KC -6.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 57.23% |
| Cover Edge: | 9.26% |
| PIT @ SF | 9/22 4:25pm |
| Wager: | SF -6.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 56.38% |
| Cover Edge: | 7.63% |
| KC @ OAK | 9/15 4:05pm |
| Wager | OAK +8 |
| Cover Probability: | 59.38% |
| Cover Edge: | 13.36% |
| ARZ @ BAL | 9/15 1:00pm |
| Wager: | BAL -13.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 58.14% |
| Cover Edge: | 10.99% |
| DAL @ WAS | 9/15 1:00pm |
| Wager: | WAS +5 |
| Cover Probability: | 54.97% |
| Cover Edge: | 4.94% |
