Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers.
Recommended Wager: Minnesota (-7.0) over Dallas
Apologies for the late post here -- we added in a recommended bet based on some line movement that we believe open up value. This post takes a quick look at the game and how to handle betting it depending on which number you have available to you.
Recommended Wager: Las Vegas (+7) over Kansas City
Betting against Mahomes and the Chiefs sounds like a form of torture. But alas, we trust our model. Give me the Raiders with the points.
Recommended Wager: Miami (-3.5) over Denver
This blog examines the Dolphins (-3.5) over the Broncos. The 3.5 point hook is never fun, but betting against the Broncos offense is usually a treat.
Recommended Wager: Houston (+2.0) over New England
This one takes a look at the Texans (+2.0) over New England. The model likes the better quarterback at home getting points. Who am I to argue?
Week 11 Recap: Our Win Rate is Unsustainable
I recap a very friendly week 11 slate where we took down all 3 of our bets, putting our season-long win rate at 59%. Life is good in the gambling streets.
Breakdown: Kansas City (-3.5) @ LA Chargers
Lost all your money on Sunday? Never fear, we're jumping on the Chiefs bandwagon just as their offense is getting healthy, who are taking on the Chargers Monday Night in Mexico.
Breakdown: New Orleans (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay
The model calls for a razor thin 0.43% edge betting the Saints, but read on here to find out why we're green lighting this game anyway.
Breakdown: Buffalo (-5.5) @ Miami
After taking week 10 off, we're back to the gambling streets, which naturally means we're back to betting a Dolphins game. This time we're taking the Bills -5.5 on the road.
Recommended Bets: Week 11
Buffalo -5.5
| BUF @ MIA | 11/7 1:00PM |
| Wager: | BUF -5.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 57.81% |
| Cover Edge: | 10.36% |
Kansas City -3.5
| KC @ LAC | 11/18 8:15PM |
| Wager | KC -3.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 51.55% |
| Cover Edge: | -1.58% |
