It's been a tough few weeks for the First and Thirty guys, but at least we were able to salvage things slightly with the Saints comeback win on Monday night.
We went in a slightly different direction with this one, recommending a tease with the Rams and Saints. This explains how to approach betting this depending what lines you have available as well as a brief breakdown of both games.
The model, much like the Football Gods, wants us to pick on a banged up Eagles offense that must face one of the better defenses in the league. Pick on them, we shall. We're taking the Steelers -7.0.
The second bet of the week features the Falcons (-2.0) over the Panthers. This is a classic fade the public bet, the model is ignoring the 0-4 record from the Falcons, instead favoring projections moving forward.
We're kicking off by taking old man Brady and the Bucs -2.0 over the Bears on Thursday Night Football. In the words of Brady himself, "Lets. Fucking. Go."
In the interest of full disclosure, I’m posting our in-house power rankings that is used to feed the model. These rankings are projections for each team for the given week, with injury adjustments if they might be without a key contributor for the week.
Let's take a look back at an exciting week 5 where we won both of our bets. The Patriots started things off poorly and finished strong, where the Cardinals almost blew and easy cover. Either way, a winning week is a winning week.
Here's a fact Jack: the only way to make this game watchable is to bet it. Be a degenerate and take the Cardinals +3.5, and we can all make fun of how bad both teams offensive lines are. Deal? Deal.
New England -15.5
|NE @ WAS||10/6 1:00pm|
|ARI @ CIN||10/6 1:00pm|